The ASX 200 has closed 0.5% higher today with the All Ords up the same.
You've got miners and some consumer companies leading the pack, with the little stock that could, Core Lithium, up again too today after it dived last week on news it has stopped production at its mine in Darwin.
Nine of 11 sectors ended higher. IT was the best performing sector, gaining +1.20% and +0.86% for the past five days.
See you all tomorrow!
This great piece from my colleague Kate Ainsworth has just been published about the fake sales crisis at online retailer The Iconic.
As Kate explains, the reason why fraudsters have been able to make purchases in the breached accounts of Iconic customers, is because the retailer lets customers store credit card details.
When returning customers make a purchase in their account, they are not required to pass extra barriers to purchase, such as entering security codes (CCV).
That makes it easier for customers to buy, but easier for fraudsters to buy as well, when they hack an account, explains cybersecurity expert Professor Richard Buckland.
"Anything that allows you to easily buy something with as few clicks and steps as possible, unfortunately, also makes you more vulnerable to being scammed or have your data stolen," he says.
"Because it makes it easier for the bad guy to buy something, too."
More here.
Just previewing what I'll be talking about on the 7PM Finance report tonight, the astonishing rise in Japan's stock market (and economy).
Japan's Nikkei index share average reached its highest since February 1990, after a year that saw it lift more than 30% (!).
What's done it? Well cheap money and low interest rates.
But we've had those too. It seems like long, boring structural changes have finally worked. Among them:
Just to clarify, and the SEC chair was very specific on this, that the 11 products being approved were solely spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The SEC remains extremely sceptical of cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin, as illustrated by the chair's clear warnings to investors.
"Bitcoin is primarily a speculative, volatile asset that's also used for illicit activity including ransomware, money laundering, sanction evasion, and terrorist financing," Gary Gensler cautioned.
"While we approved the listing and trading of certain spot bitcoin ETP shares today, we did not approve or endorse bitcoin.
"Investors should remain cautious about the myriad risks associated with bitcoin and products whose value is tied to crypto."
He really couldn't get much clearer than that. Basically the SEC felt it had little choice but to approve these products in light of that recent legal decision, but it certainly isn't enthusiastic about them.
Some home grown flavour in Citi's Asia-Pacific year ahead conference being held today, with its chief economist for Australia Josh Williamson chairing the session on monetary policy.
He's got a distinctly non-consensus, but not entirely unique, view that the Reserve Bank will hike interest rates once more in February to 4.6% before it finishes the current cycle.
Partly he believes that's because Australia, and the RBA in particular, has been a "laggard" in the global inflation and rates cycle.
"I like to think that we're probably six to nine months behind the US in terms of our macroeconomic cycle," he told the conference.
However, he also believes some unique local factors, such as around $280 billion in household savings accumulated during COVID, are slowing Australia's decline in inflation.
"In our view, domestic demand is ahead of where the economy's productive capacity actually lies," Williamson continued.
"The other thing too, is we still have a huge migration growth in Australia as well, which is adding hugely to domestic demand here, and certainly stretching it above where it is about the capacity of the economy to supply goods and services."
However, he doesn't rule out the strong possibility of the RBA leaving rates on hold, even if he thinks the better economic decision would be to raise them.
"I probably would suggest that the political risks around the RBA are that it's actually done," he said.
"We've commentated and published on the point that we do view that there has been more politicisation of the monetary policy process in Australia, certainly in the last six months, than there's been in the last sort of 60 years, I would say."
The Amazon rainforest is often described as the "lungs of the earth", a huge expanse of trees that store and absorb carbon dioxide.
Utterly enormous - it would cover 3/4 of the Australian mainland - it is mainly in Brazil.
Deforestation has been a substantial issue, but pledges at global meetings like COP and a development in Brazil's parliament may change that.
A bill regulating Brazil's carbon credit market has passed the lower house and could generate an estimated US$120 billion by 2030, tipping the financial scales and making it more profitable to keep and conserve the forest than to harvest and farm on it.
JP Morgan research lays out what this could mean:
"In the COP-26 that took place in Scotland in 2021, Brazil committed to reduce carbon emissions by 50% and methane emissions by 30% by 2030. The carbon credit market is a tool in the effort to achieve this goal. Also, a regulated market could unleash the Brazil protagonism (support) in terms of carbon credits, considering the country’s capacity top generate a high credit supply, even though Brazil is the 5th largest greenhouse gas emitter globally."
The project creates a “Brazilian Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading System” (SBCE).
Australia is working out there is money in high-quality carbon reduction programs, although the process to get there has been... very difficult.
Hi team, jumping in with an interesting report on the job market from ANZ economist Blair Chapman.
Plenty of people had time off over summer - good on you! - and many more are back at it for 2024, probably moving shortly into the post-holiday period of assessing whether your precise current position is what you want to be toiling at this time next year
Let's breakdown some of the key assessments.
Mr Chapman suggests we'll see things cool - which puts bosses in a better position than workers. Having a bet each way he says:
"The labour market is likely to continue slowing over 2024 with several indicators suggesting labour market strength peaked in late 2022 or early 2023. However, job vacancies remain elevated compared to pre-COVID levels across all states and territories suggesting there is scope for employment growth across the country in 2024, albeit at a slower pace than last year".
Why? Well population growth is expected to slow from its "current fast pace" over 2024 but it will remain faster than employment growth, meaning the unemployment rate will likely increase over the year.
Demand in aged care, accommodation, food and retail trade industries "suggests part-time jobs growth will be stronger than full-time".
Some interesting facts:
Some more thoughts on that ETF decision in the US, from Dr Darcy Allen at the RMIT Blockchain Innovation Hub.
“The approval represents the long-awaited integration of the largest crypto asset into the US traditional financial system," he told ABC News.
“This is a landmark event in the mainstream acceptance of crypto."
As Dr Darcy explains, the ETF decision will make it easier for mainstream investors to get into cryptocurrency investment.
“Similar to a share on a stock exchange, bitcoin ETFs enable investors to get exposure to the Bitcoin price through traditional regulated stock exchanges, just like they would buy a share in a company," he says.
“For too long it has been prohibitively hard for institutional investors such as super funds to invest crypto assets. Bitcoin ETFs not only provide easier access for investors, but also enhance the perceived legitimacy of crypto.”
“The SEC announcement follows years of regulatory chaos and rumours of approval in the US. A Bitcoin ETF radically reduces the barriers to traditional financial investors to deploy capital into crypto.”
And importantly:
“I anticipate that Australia and many other jurisdictions to follow and approve ETFs this year," he says.
You'll have read Michael's story earlier this day about that historic decision in the US to approve 11 applications for exchange traded funds (ETFs) tied to the most recognisable cryptocurrency, Bitcoin.
Put simply, this will allow ordinary investors (and also the uber rich) to invest money into funds that have bought up Bitcoin and are holding it in custodians, like Coinbase.
That would be rather than investors directly buying pieces of crypto coins through so-called wallets, which are still usually hosted by financial companies.
One of the 11 approved for an ETF is the world's largest asset manager Blackrock. Even talk that Blackrock had applied for a crypto ETF last year was enough to rally the market.
The decision to grant these ETFs is clearly a historic moment for cryptocurrency. The Crypto Council for Innovation, for instance, says it'll promote regulatory evolution and legitimacy.
"The introduction of a spot Bitcoin ETF isn’t just about market dynamics, it's a catalyst for regulatory evolution," they said.
"It necessitates a framework that accommodates the unique nature of crypto, potentially leading to more appropriate and informed regulatory policies in the crypto space.
"This milestone will shift public perception, painting Bitcoin as a legitimate component of a diversified investment portfolio."
Yet even the regulator that's done this, after some legal challenges, was wary to emphasise that this is not an endorsement.
"It should in no way signal the Commission's willingness to approve listing standards for crypto asset securities," SEC chair Gary Gensler warned.
The approvals come after years of instability in crypto, including the huge FTX case where many lost milions or even billions.
So, understandably, some are wary.
Take this statement by Better Way, a non-profit advocacy group founded in the US after the 2008 financial crash.
They didn't go easy, describing crypto generally as a "worthless, volatile, and fraud-filled financial product".
“(This approval) will be interpreted and spun as a de facto SEC – if not US government – endorsement of crypto generally."
So what is your take?
I've been listening in to global banking giant Citi's Year Ahead Conference Asia-Pacific session, and wanted to share some thoughts from the Q&A session with Professor Keyu Jin from the London School of Economics.
She is a leading expert on the Chinese economy, having recently published The New China Playbook: Beyond Socialism and Capitalism, which was selected to be a Financial Times must read of 2023.
Professor Jin is worried about consumer prices falling in China.
"I'm worried about deflation. I think China really can do with a healthy dose of inflation, unlike other places in the world, that will force consumers to spend and and stop this wait and see cycle and also help mitigate some of these debt problems," she said.
"How to engineer a bit of inflation would be very interesting, but I think deflation is a real threat."
However, she isn't so worried about Chinese home prices falling sharply.
"I think it's under control," she said.
"It's not really going to be a freefall … it's not a free market so prices are not going to fall dramatically."
But while she doesn't see a sudden crash looming, Professor Jin also doesn't have a positive outlook for Chinese property prices.
"Let it kind of deflate slowly over time," she said of the government's approach.
"It will be a long run painful adjustment to a new equilibrium."