For those thinking Australia's economy is resilient and there might possibly be even more rate hikes on the way, a reality check in today's retail sales figures.
Turnover at current prices fell 0.4 per cent between February and March, seasonally adjusted, and is up just 0.8 per cent over the past year despite massive population growth and strong inflation, according to the latest ABS data.
"Underlying retail turnover has been flat for the past six months and was up only 0.8 per cent compared to March 2023," noted the ABS head of retail statistics Ben Dorber.
"Outside of the pandemic period and introduction of the GST, this is the weakest growth on record when comparing turnover to the same time in the previous year."
Food retailing was the only one of the major categories to post an increase in sales (0.9%) over March, although that was as people shied away from eating at cafes, restaurants and takeaway (-0.2%).
The worst decline was for clothing, footwear and personal accessories, where turnover plunged 4.3% last month.
Departments stores (-1.6%) and household goods retailers (-1.4%) also saw turnover drop sharply.
The large, and more mortgage exposed, states of NSW and Victoria saw the biggest declines (-1.1% and -0.8% respectively), while South Australia (-0.4%) and Tasmania (-0.2%) had more modest seasonally adjusted monthly falls.
The Northern Territory, Western Australia, Queensland and the ACT had monthly gains in retail turnover.
While there's volatility in the seasonally adjusted numbers, but even the trend for retail sales is completely flat, which is disappointing given that the population is growing around 2.5% a year and inflation has pushed many prices higher.