ASX closed up

The Australian share market has edged higher on Tuesday.

The ASX 200 was up 27 points or 0.4% to 7,664.

Real estate (+0.8pc) and consumer cyclicals (+0.5pc) led the charge, while industrials (-0.5pc) and utilities (-0.1pc) were the worst performing sectors.

Here are the top and bottom movers of the day.

Soft retail sales data trims rate hike risk

Retail sales in Australia are growing at the weakest pace on record, outside of COVID period and introduction of the GST.

Retail spending unexpectedly fell in March, with sales down 0.4 per cent, following a downwardly revised 0.2 per cent increase in February.

"Worries about higher-for-longer borrowing costs combined with persistent price pressures saw consumers rein-in their spending in March, ending the temporary boost in turnover from sold-out Taylor Swift concerts," analysts from the Commonwealth Bank said in a note.

"The figures show that high interest rates are working as they should to trim consumer spending and thus bring down inflation.

"The figures are even more remarkably softer if you consider we are experiencing one of the fastest rates of population growth in the nation’s history.

"So those tipping rates to fall later in the year will be heartened by the latest data."

The weaker-than-expected retail sales figures today led markets to trim the risk of another rate hike by September to 30 per cent, from 44 per cent before the data. 

Sales of $35.7 billion in March were up just 0.8 per cent from a year earlier, the slowest pace of annual gains since August 2021, when COVID-19 shutdowns forced people away from shopping malls. 

Why RBA's inflation fight is at odds with government spending?

A new report by KPMG says Australia's fiscal and monetary policies are working against each other when it comes to bringing inflation back to target. 

The report author and KPMG chief economist Brendan Rynne says the Reserve Bank is stomping on the breaks while the government is pressing the accelerator. 

The report comes after the March quarterly CPI upward surprise and as the federal government prepares to deliver a pre-election Budget. 

Host of The Business Kirsten Aiken spoke to KPMG chief economist Brendan Rynne on the program.

Engineering firm Worley's top shareholder sells 19pc stake, shares plunge

Worley said on Tuesday its top shareholder, Dubai-based engineering and consulting firm Sidara, had sold about 19% stake in a block trade, sending the Australian engineering firm's shares more than 7% lower.

As per Reuters' calculation, the stake sale is worth $1.63 billion based on Worley stock's last closing level of $16.31.

"We appreciate the support of continuing shareholders who have invested more in our future and welcome the new shareholders who will join our register following Sidara's block trade," Worley CEO Chris Ashton said in an exchange filing.

Worley's exchange filing did not provide any further details on the stake sale.

Sidara, formerly known as Dar Group, did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for details on the block trade.

Worley shares fell as much as 7.2% to A$15.14, marking their worst day since February 07.

"The relationship with Dar has added questionable value to Worley over the last several years," RBC Capital Markets analyst Gordon Ramsay said in a note.

"We don’t understand why Sidara has not sold out entirely. 

"We have previously highlighted that Sidara would eventually be a seller of its holding (our Worley initiation report). 

"Overall, we think this sell-down should come as a relief to Worley’s Board and management.

"We continue to have a positive outlook for Worley and believe its growing exposure and market share in sustainability/transition projects will improve its long-term earnings and margins. 

"We also recognise that Worley’s share price has potential to remain subdued over the period that it takes for this large transaction to be fully bedded down."

Higher prices coming...

Freight costs are rising due to supply chain issues emerging following extreme weather events, like recent flooding in Dubai and conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. 

Ships are being forced to travel further to avoid the dried-up Panama Canal and attacks in the Red Sea by Houthi rebels.

Shipping companies are spending more on fuel and insurance premiums. 

The impact is not as substantial as the early period of the COVID pandemic, where air freight was also disrupted, and workforces were trimmed. 

But consumers are being warned to expect prices and be more patient, as retailers use slower methods to get stock. 

Despite higher interest rates, inflation, and soaring energy costs, global trade is still tipped to rise in 2024 by the World Trade Organization.

Watch this story by business reporter Daniel Ziffer.

Market snapshot
  • ASX 200: +0.4% to 7,664 points
  • Australian dollar: -0.8% to 65.14 US cents
  • S&P 500: +0.3% to 5,116 points
  • Nasdaq: +0.3% to 15,983 points
  • FTSE100: +0.1% to 8,1407 points
  • EuroStoxx: +0.1% to 508 points
  • Spot gold: -0.5% to $US2,322/ounce
  • Brent crude: -0.2% to $US88.19/barrel
  • Iron ore: -1.1% to $US110.75/tonne
  • Bitcoin: +0.7% to $US63,382

Prices current around 04:22pm AEST.

Updates on the major ASX indices:

Australian shares edge higher with Fed policy decision in focus

Australian shares edged higher at lunch time, supported by miners, while investors await the Federal Reserve's policy meeting due this week to gain a clearer insight on the US central bank's interest rate trajectory.

The ASX 200 index was up 0.1% at 7,652 points at midday. The benchmark ended 0.8% higher on Monday.

The US Fed is expected to change interest rates at its two-day policy meeting that will start later in the day, although the focus is on the central bank's rate outlook.

Recent US economic data prompted investors to raise expectations of an interest rate cut only after September.

In Australia, investors gauged March retail sales that unexpectedly fell 0.2% month-on-month as cautious consumers pulled back spending amid elevated costs of living.

Australian metals and mining index led gains with a nearly 0.8% jump, with mining giants BHP and Rio Tinto rising 0.7% and 0.4%, respectively, while Fortescue was up 1.5%.

Gold stocks lost 0.4% as greenback-priced bullion fell on a stronger US dollar.

Energy stocks rose 0.1% as sector majors Woodside Energy and Santos gained 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively.

Shares of Origin Energy traded 0.4% higher after the energy producer reported a 7% sequential increase in third-quarter revenue from its stake in the Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG) project on Tuesday.

Ampol fell as much as 2% after the energy provider reported an over 7% fall in quarterly output from its Lytton refinery in Queensland.

Taylor Swift effect hits March retail sales

Highlighting that Taylor Swift's Eras tour was unlikely to bring much lasting economic benefit to Australia is the dramatic pull-back in retail sales in March after a small February bounce.

"The Taylor Swift-inspired boost in turnover for fashion and accessory retailers last month has proved to be temporary with an instant reversal this month," notes the ABS head of retail statistics Ben Dorber.

"The falls in New South Wales and Victoria are larger than the rises last month when both states benefited from increased spending associated with the Taylor Swift concerts."

More broadly, Mr Dorber says retailers are reporting tight wallets from many customers, as cost of living pressures from essentials like education, healthcare, insurance and housing weigh on discretionary spending.

"Retailers told us that overall trading conditions remain challenging with consumers being cautious in their discretionary spending," he notes.

Before the Eras tour, when there was breathless discussion about how big a boost 'Swiftonomics' would provide to the economy, KPMG chief economist Brendan Rynne put out a note pointing out that most of the 'economic benefit' was simply a shift of spending from one part of the economy to another.

Retail sales drop in March, with falls almost across the board

For those thinking Australia's economy is resilient and there might possibly be even more rate hikes on the way, a reality check in today's retail sales figures.

Turnover at current prices fell 0.4 per cent between February and March, seasonally adjusted, and is up just 0.8 per cent over the past year despite massive population growth and strong inflation, according to the latest ABS data.

"Underlying retail turnover has been flat for the past six months and was up only 0.8 per cent compared to March 2023," noted the ABS head of retail statistics Ben Dorber.

"Outside of the pandemic period and introduction of the GST, this is the weakest growth on record when comparing turnover to the same time in the previous year."

Food retailing was the only one of the major categories to post an increase in sales (0.9%) over March, although that was as people shied away from eating at cafes, restaurants and takeaway (-0.2%).

The worst decline was for clothing, footwear and personal accessories, where turnover plunged 4.3% last month.

Departments stores (-1.6%) and household goods retailers (-1.4%) also saw turnover drop sharply.

The large, and more mortgage exposed, states of NSW and Victoria saw the biggest declines (-1.1% and -0.8% respectively), while South Australia (-0.4%) and Tasmania (-0.2%) had more modest seasonally adjusted monthly falls.

The Northern Territory, Western Australia, Queensland and the ACT had monthly gains in retail turnover.

While there's volatility in the seasonally adjusted numbers, but even the trend for retail sales is completely flat, which is disappointing given that the population is growing around 2.5% a year and inflation has pushed many prices higher.

Lithium stocks soar after Tesla's key China win

Australian lithium stocks soar after Tesla scores key wins for self-driving cars in China.

The electric vehicle maker made progress in securing regulatory approval to launch its advanced driver-assistance program in China, its second-largest market after the US.

Local lithium stocks track rally in the shares of their US-listed peers.

ASX-listed shares of Arcadium Lithium rise as much as 10% to $6.82, marking their biggest intraday pct gain ever.

Arcadium Lithium, made from the combination of Allkem and Livent Corp, trading at its highest level since March 22; top gainer in the ASX 200 benchmark.

Pilbara Minerals up as much as 3.4% to mark its best day in two months.

ASX-listed shares of Piedmont Lithium soar 8.1% to $0.20.