Don't you just love Fridays :)

Hope you have a lovely and restful weekend.

You can keep reading our stories on ABC News online and watch them via The Business. 

ASX 200: +0.96 per cent to 7,701.7 (live values below)
Australian dollar: -0.1% at 66 US cents
S&P 500: -0.6% to 5,235 points
Nasdaq: -1.1% to 16,737 points
FTSE: +0.6% to 8,231 points
EuroStoxx: +0.6% to 516 points
Spot gold: +0.1% $US2,344/ounce
Brent crude: -0.3% $US81.82/barrel
Iron ore: +1% to $US117.55/tonne
Bitcoin: -0.1% to $US68,318.2

(Prices current around 4.20pm AEST)

Live updates on the major ASX indices:

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The S&P/ASX200 closed higher on Friday, gaining 73.5 points or 0.96 per cent to 7,701.70.

The top performing stocks were  Telix Pharmaceuticals and Bega Cheese, up 14.61 per cent and 6.55 per cent respectively.

The index has lost 0.34 per cent for the last five days, and sits 2.64 per cent below its 52-week high.

Fast food chain Guzman y Gomez announced plans of an IPO and ASX listing in June.

The Australian dollar is holding steady at 66 US cents.

China has dropped its ban on imports from five Australian exporters, removing trade restrictions valued at $1 billion per year.

"Australia's beef export was impacted by China's beef ban, but it quickly rebounded from mid-2021," writes ANZ economist Vicky Xiao Zhou.

But she notes Australia will face strong trade competition in the Chinese beef market, especially from South American competitors.

China was the biggest importer of Australian beef in 2019, accounting for 25 per cent of the total export. 

The percentage dropped to 21 per cent in 2023.

"After the ban on beef from Australia, South American countries quickly expanded in the Chinese market, increasing their market share from 68 per cent to 73 per cent," she notes.

"In contrast, Australia's market share decreased from 16 per cent to 8 per cent over the same period."

Import from US increased to 6 per cent in 2023, from less than 1 per cent, despite being in the context of US-China trade war. 

And import from New Zealand decreased from 12 per cent to 8 per cent.

Read more about Agriculture Minister Murray Watt's announcement that five major Australian beef exporters suspended from exporting meat to China can now resume.

The US election in November has significant potential to impact investment markets because of the radical policy differences Trump offers versus Biden, says AMP chief economist Shane Oliver.

"Trump's tax cut and deregulation policies would be seen as positive for share markets — assuming bond investors don't baulk at his likely higher budget deficits," Mr Oliver says in a research note.

"But his policies to dramatically hike tariffs (set) off a new bigger trade war, curtail immigration and weaken Fed independence point to higher inflation, weaker global growth and a threat to Australian exports."

Mr Oliver said markets have been ignoring the election so far but given the policy differences they are likely to start focusing on it soon, particularly given his conviction and the June 27 debate.

He notes Trump is leading Biden in polls by around 1 point, but about 14 per cent are undecided and 20 per cent to 25 per cent of his supporters indicate they will reconsider if he is convicted of a crime.

"Against this, the guilty verdict may just serve to galvanise support amongst his base," Mr Oliver notes.

"Straight after the guilty verdict the PredictIt betting market saw the probability of a Biden victory rebound to just below that of Trump. But there is a long way to go yet."

Read more about the implications of the guilty verdict against Trump in this piece by our Washington-based reporter Jade Macmillan here: 

NAB has released its residential report for the first quarter, finding that foreign buyers of residential real estate remains higher than the long term average and close to the six and a half year high.

"The market share of foreign buyers in new Australian housing markets in Q1 fell slightly, from last quarter's 6½ year high, to 10 per cent (from 11 per cent  in Q4), but remains above the long-term survey average (9.1 per cent)," NAB noted.

"This reflected falls in market share in NSW (12 per cent) and WA (11 per cent).

"The market share of foreign buyers increased in QLD in Q4 (7.6 per cent) and remained steady in VIC (10 per cent). 

"However, the market share of foreign buyers remains above average in all surveyed states."

Juwai IQI operates a global network of more than 40,000 real estate agents and is China's largest portal for overseas property.

Its data shows that in the first quarter, Australia was the top destination in the world for buyers from mainland China, as it has been for the past two years.

"Chinese buying enquiries for Australian residential property surged by 156 per cent in Q4, compared to a year earlier, but in the first quarter were down 6 per cent," according to Juwai IQI Co-Founder and group managing director Daniel Ho.

"That shows that demand remains elevated, but the exceptional post-Covid growth has moderated."

He said the NAB data also confirms that foreign buyer interest in Australian property is higher than in recent years but cautions,  "remember that those years include the pandemic, during which we saw nearly no foreign buying".

"Foreign buyers accounting for about 10 per cent or 11 per cent of transactions seems about right, given the relatively high levels of immigration and the high numbers of foreign students in the country," he said.

"You would expect the foreign buyer share to decline by a couple of points in the year ahead, if the government is successful at cutting net inbound migration in half over the next two years."

Hi Isaac,

You're most welcome — and welcome to the club! It's a pretty ... rocking ... place to be. (Pardon the pun.)

Geosciences Australia maintains the list of critical minerals in Australia — all 31 of them — which you can access here.

GA also has a fun little map showing where all of the different critical mineral deposits that we know about, and as well as where the mines are located.

That said, your memory does serve you correctly because we do have an interactive guide of all 31 critical minerals that tells you what each rock does — complete with pictures, if that's your thing.

It looks a little something like this:

If you want to save it for later, you can also find it in this story my colleague Rachel Pupazzoni did in the lead up to the budget:

My colleague David Taylor looks at National Australia Bank's forecasts on Australia's economic growth.

The result? It's forecasting next Wednesday's ABS National Accounts to show gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter growing at 0 per cent.

Just to be clear, that's "zero" per cent… as in no growth.

Annualised, that would bring GDP growth to 1 per cent.

GDP is compromised of consumption spending, business investment, government spending and net exports.

Economists haven't yet received all the data to give us a complete picture of economic growth, but based on the partial data they have received, the National Australia Bank forecasts, "Another quarter of very soft growth."

"… consumption and business investment broadly flat, dwelling investment slightly lower and volatile outcomes for inventories and trade," the bank noted.

Elevated inflation, tighter monetary policy and weak real wages growth have seen households under the financial pump for two years now.

So, will a particularly weak first quarter GDP figure have the Reserve Bank shying away from a June interest rate hike?

"Confirmation of ongoing weakness in growth is likely to see the RBA remain on hold, despite a still strong CPI read in April," the Nab said.

The Reserve Bank has consistently said it wants to hold onto as many of the economy's recent job gains as possible.

The NAB clearly sees the Reserve Bank prioritising this ahead of squashing inflation.

"While the labour market has remained broadly resilient, it is likely that ongoing slow growth in H1 2024 will see the unemployment rate rise further – seeing the cash rate remain on hold, despite inflation remaining too high."

As for the rest of the year? It seems the economy's going to struggle to emerge from this rut.

"We expect soft growth to persist in Q2, before easing pressures on household income support growth in H2 – though just how much remains uncertain and will be key."

All eyes next week will be on the outcome of the Fair Work Commission annual award wage decision and the latest GDP figures.

CBA economist Stephen Wu says financial markets and economists have been focused on the April CPI indicator, which showed a slight rise. 

This monthly inflation lift mainly reflected stronger fruit and vegetable and fuel and clothing prices and the impact of a move back to the usual April increase in health insurance premiums.

"We don't expect this to have any immediate implications for near term monetary policy," Wu says.

Instead, he says the RBA should focus more on next week's Q1 24 GDP print.

"The National Accounts are the most comprehensive measure of economic activity and will confirm that the household sector remained very weak over the first three months of the year," Wu says.

"Partial data already indicate that retail spending volumes fell in the quarter. A further contraction in dwelling investment will also weigh on growth, while we expect business investment remained a bright spot for the economy."

CBA expect growth of just 0.1 per cent in the quarter.

"That would see the annual rate fall further, to just 1.1 per cent, marking the slowest pace of growth for the Australian economy in more than 30 years (outside of the pandemic), despite population growth the strongest in more than 50 years," Wu notes.

Also critical to the economic outlook is the Fair Work Commission's handing down of the annual award wage decision on Monday from 10.30am.

The 5.75 per cent increase in July last year was higher than expected and contributed to a strong Q3 23 inflation print.

"Last year's decision was handed down when inflation was 7.0 per cent (annually)," Wu notes.

"With inflation having halved since then, we would expect next week's [minimum wage] decision to be close to but above that current rate of inflation."

Other economic data out next week includes a read on home prices, which Wu expects "should indicate a re acceleration in May, led by continued strength in the smaller capital cities".

"New housing lending should show a solid lift in April, based on our internal lending data," Wu says.

This week we heard from RBA Chief Economist Sarah Hunter. Next week we'll hear for the first time from Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser in a fireside chat — his first public speaking appearance since taking on the role earlier this year.

Offshore, the big question will be whether we will start to see major advanced central banks begin to cut interest rates from next week.

Both the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the European Central Bank (ECB) meet next week.

"Our international economics team expects both central banks to begin their rate cutting cycle," Wu says.

"They narrowly favour a 25 bais point BoC cut to 4.75 per cent given the sharp easing in underlying inflation since the beginning of this year, but acknowledge the risk is the cut is delayed until July. 

"In contrast, the ECB is widely expected to deliver a 25 basis point cut to 3.75 per cent, with the uncertainty around whether back to back cuts could be delivered."

Capital Economics' Head of Asia-Pacific Marcel Thieliant says those expecting rate cuts this year are unlikely to get them due to monthly inflation data in April showing a modest tick up in inflation.

"We aren't convinced that the further pick-up in trimmed mean inflation in the Monthly CPI Indicator in April will be replicated in the quarterly measure that the Reserve Bank of Australia considers more reliable," Thieliant notes.

"And with consumption growth set to remain very weak this quarter, the hurdle for another rate hike is high.

"Nonetheless, the key risk is that the likely rebound in real household incomes across the second half of the year will be accompanied by a pronounced rebound in consumption growth at a time when inflationary pressures haven't been brought to heel yet.

"Accordingly, the RBA won't be able to lower interest rates this year."