That's it for today

Thanks for joining us today. And thank you for sending through your thoughtful comments.

We'll be back tomorrow morning. Take care of yourself.

Top individual stocks

Liontown Resources was the top mover today. It ended up closing 7.3% higher after it struck an important agreement with LG Energy Solution (which we mentioned a few posts below).

Whitehaven Coal (+5.66%), Coronado Global Resources (3.88%), and Woodside Energy (+3.12%) also made strong gains.

The strong performance of energy stocks was unusual for the day.

Almost every other sector lost ground today, when you break the ASX200 Index into its sectoral components.

Appreciation for your perspective

The South Coast of NSW is a beautiful part of the world too. Whales and dolphins never stop visiting its coastline. But it's been through a lot in the last few years, first with the 2019-20 bush fires, then the pandemic, and now this inflation and everything else that's followed. Hopefully things improve for everyone soon.

Michael Quigley appointed as chair of ANSTO board for four year term

The Albanese Government has appointed Michael Quigley as chair of the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO) Board for a four-year term.

Mr Quigley is the former chief executive of the National Broadband Network (NBN).

The government says Mr Quigley's experience will support the management of ANSTO's new nuclear medicine manufacturing facility.

It says ANSTO provides advice to the government on nuclear and science technology matters and delivers real-world benefits to Australians by supporting access to nuclear medicines.

Each week, ANSTO produces about 12,000 patient doses of nuclear medicine which are sent to around 250 hospitals and medical centres.

ASX closes in the red

Trading on the sharemarket closed at 4pm, and it looks like the ASX200 index lost 32.5 points today (-0.42%) to close on 7,718 points. 

A small business owner's view on the economy

Thanks Kimberley, for this sobering point of view. 

Why have Liontown shares jumped 6% in value?

Liontown Resources (lithium) is the biggest mover on the ASX today (so far). 

Its share price jumped after it announced that it had entered into a strategic partnership with LG Energy Solution.

As per the information it told the Australian Stock Exchange:

The companies signed a convertible note subscription agreement, an extended offtake agreement for the supply of high-quality lithium from Liontown's Valley Project, and a downstream collaboration agreement to explore the feasibility of establishing a lithium refinery which has the potential for long-term value creation.

The agreement will be formalised at a ceremony scheduled to take place on 4 July at LG Energy Solution headquarters in Seoul, Korea.

How the monthly consumer price index indicator is calculated

The ABS's monthly consumer price index (CPI) indicator is still relatively new. 

It officially started being released in September 2022, and it's been designed to provide monthly insights into CPI inflation to complement the quarterly CPI release.

The monthly CPI indicator isn't as comprehensive as the quarterly inflation data.

It only updates prices for between 62 per cent and 73 per cent of the consumer price index basket every month, depending on the month.

The graphic below shows how it works.

If you think of the year as being divided into quarters, it means there's three months in every quarter.

The first quarter of the year begins in January, so January is "Month 1" of the first quarter, February is "Month 2", and March is "Month 3."

Then, the second quarter of the year begins in April, so April is "Month 1" of the second quarter," May is "Month 2," and June is "Month 3."

And so on.

According to the ABS's methodology, "Month 1" in every quarter only captures the price changes of 62% of the consumer price index basket, while "Month 2" captures 73% and "Month 3" captures 71%.

It means the monthly CPI indicator is a complicated measure to interpret each month, because you're trying to get a read on so many different things that aren't necessarily comparable.

I've seen a few analysis pieces that say it actually contributes more noise than it's worth. But that's an argument that might take some time to be settled.

Westpac forecasting monthly inflation indicator to fall back to 3.6% in June

Westpac economist Justin Smirk has circulated an interesting note on the composition of inflation in Australia at the moment.

Two weeks ago, the ABS released its monthly inflation indicator for May. 

It showed the annual movement for inflation was estimated to have picked up from 3.6% in April to 4% in May.

It led to a lot of agonising, from economists and others, about the likely future path of inflation and interest rates. 

But Mr Smirk says he thinks the June monthly inflation indicator will drop back down to 3.6%.

"The Monthly CPI Indicator increased 4% in the year to May, up from 3.6%yr in April, 3.5%yr in March, and the 3.4%yr in February," he's written.

"This was Westpac’s forecast which is part of the reason why our June quarter CPI forecast is unchanged.

"May provided an important update on household services. Overall, the services update was softer than we have expected with smaller gains in restaurants & takeaway food offset by stronger than expected gains in some durable goods.

"Westpac estimates that market services inflation (ex volatile components and holiday travel) eased back to 5.4%yr in May from 5.7%yr in April and a recent peak of 6.2%yr in June 2023. Our forecast is for this measure of inflation to be down to around 5%yr by end 2024.

"The June Monthly Indicator will provide the critical second round of quarterly surveys as well as June’s monthly data. The data for the last month of each quarter is released with the quarterly CPI.

"Westpac is forecasting the June Monthly CPI Indicator to gain 0.3% in the month which, with base effects, will see the annual pace ease back to 3.6%yr." 

CHOICE welcomes appointment as 'designated complainant'

Regarding my last post, the consumer advocacy group CHOICE has welcomed its appointment as a designated complainant.

The concept of having "designated complainants" who are empowered to complain to the competition regulator on behalf of consumers and small businesses is similar to the "super complaints" function in the UK.

CHOICE says ordinarily, complaints to Australia's competition regulator don't require a public response and aren't subject to any time frame requirements, so this will change things.

"The UK's 'super complaints' function has led to significant positive change for consumers, including stronger protections against scams following a complaint from UK consumer group, Which?," said CHOICE director of campaigns and communications, Rosie Thomas.

"CHOICE looks forward to working with consumers and other consumer groups to make our first 'super complaint'. 

"We encourage all consumers to tell us what dodgy business practice they think warrants a 'super complaint'."