Bonne soiree

We'll that's it, I'm all blogged out.

But fear not, the ABC business team never rests.

My esteemed colleague Kirsten Aiken from The Business talks to Wilson Asset Management's lead portfolio manager Matthew Haupt about today's great unravelling.

You catch The Business on ABC News at 8:45pm, after the late news on ABC TV, and anytime on ABC iview.

As the recently crowned Olympic 100m champion Noah Lyles might say, "Bonne soiree, a tout a l'heure."

A classic momentum crash – Saxo

It's "a classic momentum crash" according to the equities team at Saxo Bank.

But if you didn't see it coming, don't worry. Few did.

Saxo's head of equity strategy, Peter Garnry, said the crash that started on Friday was a perfect storm, the timing of which could never be nailed.

Mr Garnry noted the key factors driving these moves were numerous.

AI (artificial intelligence) profit taking, a blow-up in a key funding currency (the Japanese yen), one-day options dominance, and record equity index concentration were all culpable in today's wreck, according to Mr Garnry.

So, what is behind the rapid change of sentiment?

"We have gone from high confidence, a record equity index concentration and almost no rate cuts expected in the US, to a market that is now pricing in five rate cuts by year-end in the US and equity markets tumbling in Japan," Mr Garnry said.

"The short-term outlook is right now driven by risk-management policies kicking into gear across many institutional investors.

"When CVaR (conditional value at risk — a key risk measure used in portfolio management) measures increases significantly, funds must cut exposure.

"Adding to the overall moves are factors such as AI profit taking, stronger Yen (making funding more expensive), 1-day options exacerbating moves, and finally the equity market index concentration which was the highest in 90 years just three weeks ago."

For the time being the Saxo house view is cautiously optimistic, arguing the recession probability is not higher than 33%.

"The most important point for investors is to not panic. These are the exact types of events when investors 'get out' and never get back in," Mr Garnry said.

The ASX sheds more than $100 billion in a day

Normally we would have put the blog to bed by now, but it's been such a tumultuous day, we'll keep it open a bit longer.

Here's a piece David Taylor filed just after the market closed. 

ASX 200 tumbles 3.7%, Wall Street opening looks ugly

Well, that was grim! The ASX followed Wall Street's Friday capitulation straight down the chute itself, dropping 3.7% across the day. 

If anything, it got worse across the day and things were particularly ugly in Japan where the Nikkei fell almost 13%.

All sectors finished in the red, as did all the ASX's top 20.

Only two stocks across the ASX200 made gains, and even then, they were marginal.

Banks and financials were hammered: CBA (-5.7%), Macquarie (-5.3%) and QBE (-5.0%)

The iron ore price edging up on Friday may have protected the big miners to a degree, with Rio Tinto (-0.1%), Fortescue (-1.9%) BHP (-2.1%) less beaten up than many blue chips.

The Australian dollar was also feeling the pain and was trading below 64 US cents at 4:20pm AEST.

Bitcoin has been the worst of the major asset classes, dropping almost 16% across the day.

Things don't look any brighter looking across to Wall Street, with the S&P500 futures down 2.3% and the Nasdaq futures down 4.3%.

Market snapshot
  • ASX 200: -3.7% to 7,650 points (live values below)
  • Australian dollar: -1.7% to 63.98 US cents
  • Nikkei: -12.9% to 31,287 points
  • Hang Seng: -2.2% to 16,577
  • Shanghai: -0.6% to 3,363
  • S&P 500 (Friday): -1.8% to 5,347 points
  • Nasdaq (Friday): -2.4% to 18,441 points
  • FTSE (Friday): -1.3% to 8,175 points
  • EuroStoxx (Friday): -2.6% to 481 points
  • Spot gold: -0.4% to $US2,434/ounce
  • Brent crude: -0.6% at $US76.37/barrel
  • Iron ore (Friday): +1.1% to $US103.80/tonne
  • Bitcoin: -15.9% to $US52,673

Live updates on the major ASX indices:

Wall Street futures look ominous

Had a quick peak at Wall Street futures for tonight.

If today's events left you feeling a bit queasy, you better look away now … things are getting worse, not better.

The S&P500 futures are pointing to a drop of 2.3% on opening, making it three days straight of heavy losses.

The Nasdaq futures are even more bleak, down 4.6%.

Comments - an apology.

Apologies to everyone dropping comments into the blog. I must have skipped the session on dealing with comments back in Blog School with Michael a few weeks ago.

So rather unprofessionally I'll try and wrap them up as a job lot.

John and Pat want to know more about what's happening in the BRICS world. To be honest John and Pat, I'm not totally across it myself. Despite searches across our various agency platforms, nothing much shows up. All I can say is on the most recent daily (mainly Friday) numbers Brazil (-1.2%), Russia (-1.3%), India (-1.9%), China (now down 0.5% today) and South Africa (-2.3%) are struggling a bit too. I haven't delved into Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia or the UAE just yet.

Slippery Steven is concerned about what this conniption means for the trout population. Too early to say, Slippery, but hopefully not too much damage.

Natty enjoys the balance of bleak and positive graphs. We do our best to be balanced at the ABC and thank you for the kind thoughts Natty.

Andrew wants to know what the chances of a rate cut tomorrow are. I'd say very slim. The RBA is focussed far more on inflation than day-to-day volatility on the markets, but as mentioned way back around 8am, we here at the ABC markets blog are not ruling anything in or out. Saying, 'Tune in at 2:30pm tomorrow to find out,' is about as helpful as I can be, which generally speaking isn't very. 

ASX fall accelerates in the afternoon session

The ASX 200 capitulation has picked up pace in the afternoon session and the index is now down 3.4%.

In Japan the damage is worse, with the Nikkei tumbling back down 8%, having earlier clawed its way back to -5.7% about lunchtime.

The big end of town, the ASX top 20, is awash with red ink, with every stock now down for the day.

Rio Tinto is the best of a beaten-up bunch.

Goodman Group (-5.9%) and QBE (-5.6%) are the worst performers.

And for those keeping score, Bitcoin is down a bit more at -15% so far today.

No decision on Woodside's Browse project this year

Reuters is reporting the WA Environment Protection Agency (EPA) will not release its recommendations on Woodside's big Browse gas project this year.

The report follows a story in Nine newspapers that the EPA might reject the $20.5 billion protect.

A report in The Sydney Morning Herald newspaper on Monday said the WA EPA preliminary comments sent to the company in February called the proposal terms "unacceptable".

However, this morning the WA EPA was playing a dead bat on the report.

"It is not appropriate to comment on any outcome until the assessment and appeals process are complete," EPA deputy chair Lee McIntosh wrote in an email to Reuters.

Mr McIntosh said final recommendations would go to the WA state government in 2025.

The Browse project, 425km offshore from Broome, has been struggling for momentum since 2018 when Woodside and its joint venture partners selected the site for development.

The project's plans include two floating production storage and offloading facilities to deliver 11.4 Mtpa (million tonnes per annum) of LNG and domestic gas.

Woodside, with a 30% stake, is the largest partner in the JV which includes Shell, BP as well as Japanese and Chinese interests.

Bitcoin and cryptos are feeling the pain too

Perhaps the worst performing asset class amongst the recent market carnage are cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Bitcoin is down more than 13% today and at $US54,000 it is a long way short of the $US67,000 it was priced at only a week ago, and 20% down on its March high.

Ethereum's performance has been even more dire, down 23% today.

Bitcoin has basically been lumped in with other risky assets as investors switch their thinking from greed to fear and bolt for the exits.

"It's a big reminder that Bitcoin and crypto in general are risk assets and sit at the pointy end of the risk spectrum," Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, told Reuters.

Mr Sycamore said bitcoin was testing trend channel support at $54,000/$53,000 area and needed to hold that level to "prevent further capitulation towards $48,000".

Buckle up!