Goodbye

That's it for another day on the ABC's markets blog.

On behalf of my fellow bloggers, Rachel Clayton and Steph Chalmers, thanks for your company.

Our always debonair colleague, "Downtown" Dan Ziffer, will, as we say in the racing game, pick up the reins and be going hands and heels all day tomorrow — and as he always does, Dan will make every post a winner.

Until next week, au revoir.

ASX 200 gallops home to end 0.6pc higher

Perhaps the market was channelling its inner Kiwi (no, not the currency, the 1983 Melbourne Cup winner) to storm home finishing 0.6% higher after a sluggish start.

The utilities sector has led all the way (see Beledale Ball and jockey John Letts, Melbourne Cup 1980) thanks to a 3.1% gain from gas pipeline operator APA, while toll road operator Transurban put on 1.6%.

Among the top 20, Telstra was in demand (+1.6%), while CSL (1.7%) was another topweight that did well.

Westpac (+0.3%) bounced back from earlier stumble with investors getting over their disappointment of the absence of a special dividend, preferring to concentrate on the "in-line" $7bn full year profit, widening margins and a solid capital base.

The other big banks were also bid up with NAB gaining 0.5%, CBA up 2.3% and ANZ making it into positive territory late, up 0.2%.

The big miners were all weaker — BHP (-0.2%), Rio Tinto (-1.6%) and Fortescue (-0.3%) — on weaker iron ore prices.

Westgold Resources (+3.6%), Cleanaway Waste Management (+3.3%) and  Telix Pharmaceuticals were the ASX 200's top performers.

Mineral Resources (-8.3%) was in the doghouse following its board's response to allegations of impropriety among the company's leadership, while uranium miners like Boss Energy (-7.6%) had a rather shabby day.

Across the region, fortunes have been mixed — the Nikkei is down 2.6%, while the Hang Seng is marginally higher (+0.1%), and China's Shanghai Composite is up 0.5%.

Oil, gold and the Australian dollar are all a bit firmer.

The S&P 500 is priced for a modest gain of about 0.2% ahead of election day.

Market snapshot
  • ASX 200: +0.6% to 8,165 points (live values below)
  • Australian dollar: +0.7% to 66.03 US cents
  • Nikkei: -2.6% at 38,053 points
  • Hang Seng: +0.1% at 20,528 points
  • Shanghai: +0.7% at 3,918 points
  • S&P 500 (Friday): +0.4% to 5,729 points
  • Nasdaq (Friday): +0.7% to 20,033 points
  • FTSE (Friday): +0.8% to 8,177 points
  • EuroStoxx (Friday): +1.0% to 504 points
  • Spot gold: +0.2% to $US2,742/ounce
  • Brent crude: +1.6% to $US74.20/barrel
  • Iron ore (Friday): -1.3% to $102.30/tonne
  • Bitcoin: -0.2% to $US69,085

Prices current at around 4:30pm AEDT

Live updates on the major ASX indices:

RBA rates decision — here's what the pundits reckon

One more sleep until the RBA unveils its latest decision on interest rates.

We on the blog hate to be killjoys, but there is virtually no chance of the banks doing anything except sitting tight with the cash rate parked at 4.35%.

Here's a hot take from J.P. Morgan economist Ben Jarman.

"During the last 12 months on hold, the RBA has fought a communications battle on two fronts, at times having to defend both not cutting, and not hiking. 

"The board meets this week with annual headline inflation having just returned to the target band, and the Q&A will likely be dominated by media questions as to why the policy rate isn't yet falling as it is elsewhere in the world. 

"We expect Governor Bullock to emphasise the temporary nature of subsidy support flattering headline, which will drop out next year.

"In our view, this doesn't change the broader direction of travel, however, which is toward cuts."

And if you want to know what the market punditry is thinking about the broader direction of rates travel, senior FX analyst at InTouch Capital Markets Sean Callow tweeted (or is that Xed?) this handy list via Bloomberg.

On The Business tonight with Nadia Daly

Here's what's coming up on The Business tonight with Nadia Daly.

  • Nadia talks to legal and corporate governance expert Helen Bird about the Mineral Resources board's decision to show founder and MD Chris Elision the door and fine him on the way out.
  • Nadia also talks to US political commentator and journalist John Judis on the eve of the US elections.
  • Nassim Khadem looks at the banks' call to ease credit buffers for home loans and the impact it would have on financial instability.

Catch The Business on ABC News at 8:45pm (AEDT), after the late news on ABC TV, and any time on ABC iview.

More on Mineral Resources founder and MD Chris Ellison being shown the door

With a lot more detail on one of the big stories of the day — Mineral Resources founder and MD Chris Ellison being shown the door by his board and being fined on the way out — here's a terrific piece from Charlie McLean from our Pilbara bureau.

Economists welcome student debt repayment changes but say government could do better for students than slash HECS debt

Economists have weighed in on the weekend announcement by the prime minister that, if re-elected, Labor will slash student debt by 20 per cent and raise the income threshold to $67,000.

There was broad agreement that raising the level of income people need to earn before they started making student debt repayments was a great plan and was real reform to higher education sector.

But a lukewarm response to the 20% cut.

Will China finally pull out its fiscal bazooka?

Over the past few weeks, China's Ministry of Finance (MoF) has been teasing markets with the idea of a big fiscal stimulation package about to be unleashed on the spluttering economy.

There have been a few weekend media conferences, promises of a few billion yuan here and there, but in reality, the MoF doesn't have the authority to pull out the fiscal bazooka loaded with trillions of yuan.

The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress does have that authority and is meeting this week.

Expectations after Friday's wrap up are we will see some concrete and sizable stimulus measures tabled.

Societe Generale's China economists are forecasting an immediate package of 3-to-4 trillion yuan ($640 billion to $850 billion).

"We expect the package to commit to a fiscal top-up worth 2.5-3.5% of GDP per annum for the next 3- 4 years, pointing to a reasonable chance of pausing the deflationary spiral," the SG team wrote to clients over the weekend.

"The meeting may also offer forward guidance on further fiscal expansion in 2025, particularly if Trump wins the election.

"We think (Friday's) announcement will be just one of several steps to address China's structural challenges, while a plan to support consumption in the long run is likely to emerge late."

SG argues a 3-to-4-trillion yuan package spread over a couple of years would have a decent chance of accomplishing the urgent task of stopping the deflationary spiral and stabilising confidence.

"Looking ahead, as the policy shift is now clear, we think (the) package will be just one of several steps to address China's structural challenges.

"A plan to support consumption in the long run is unlikely any time soon, so we keep our expectations low on this front for now."

ANZ's China team of Raymond Yeung and Zaoping Xing have slightly different expectations.

They forecast a more modest direct stimulus of1-trillion yuan ($200 billion) via special local government bonds which they argue is enough in the short term to support Chinese GDP to its 5% target.

Yeung and Xing argue the centrepiece will be a 10 trillion ($2 trillion) debt swap program, but "the economic impact will be indirect and unnoticeable".

On ANZ estimates, China's "hidden" debts stand at around 10-to-15 trillion yuan.

Using 10 trillion in new bond issuance to swap for existing troubled debt should in theory enhance credit worthiness of local government by parking the hidden liabilities in the MoF.

"The CNY10trn debt swap plan is meant to relax the financial constrains facing the local governments.

"By reducing their debt burden and interest expenses, they can allocate more financial resources to economic development.

"But the growth impact will not be very visible."

ANZ says the efficacy of the stimulus package comes this an important caveat.

"Growth requires wholesale reform of the fiscal and tax system to support the financial sustainability of local governments," the ANZ team said.

ASX up 0.4pc, Westpac recovers early losses

The ASX 200 has followed Wall Street's positive lead and is 0.4% higher leading into the afternoon session.

The utilities sector has led the way thanks to a 2.7% gain from gas pipeline operator APA, while toll road operator Transurban has put on 1.0%.

Among the top 20, Telstra is in demand (+1.6%), while CSL (1.5%) is another heavyweight doing well.

Westpac (+0.3%) has bounced back from earlier selling with investors getting over their disappointment of the absence of a special dividend, preferring to concentrate on the "in-line" $7bn full year profit, widening margins and a solid capital base.

The other big banks are also largely being bid up with NAB gaining 0.8%, CBA up 0.7%, while the ANZ has gone backwards (-0.2%).

The big miners are all weaker — BHP (-0.5%), Rio Tinto (-1.0%) and Fortescue (-0.7%) — on weaker iron ore prices.

Telix Pharmaceuticals (+3.4%) and WiseTech (+2.9%) are the ASX 200's top performers while Mineral Resources (-8.3%) is in the doghouse following its board's response to allegations of impropriety among the company's leadership.

Across the region, fortunes are mixed — the Nikkei is down 2.6%, the Hang Seng is down 0.7%, and China's Shanghai Composite is up 0.2%.

Oil, gold and the Australian dollar are all a bit firmer.

Market snapshot
  • ASX 200: +0.4% to 8,150 points (live values below)
  • Australian dollar: +0.7% to 66.03 US cents
  • Nikkei: -2.6% at 38,053 points
  • Hang Seng: -0.7% at 20,517 points
  • Shanghai: +0.2% at 3,899 points
  • S&P 500 (Friday): +0.4% to 5,729 points
  • Nasdaq (Friday): +0.7% to 20,033 points
  • FTSE (Friday): +0.8% to 8,177 points
  • EuroStoxx (Friday): +1.0% to 504 points
  • Spot gold: +0.2% to $US2,741/ounce
  • Brent crude: +1.3% to $US74.08/barrel
  • Iron ore (Friday): -1.3% to $102.30/tonne
  • Bitcoin: -0.4% to $US68,932

Prices current at around 1pm AEDT

Live updates on the major ASX indices: