More context on nuclear power in the US

We’re jumping back into this blog to give some more context about nuclear power in the United States, given it generates more nuclear power than any other country.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton announced further detail and costings of the Coalition’s nuclear strategy last Friday.

Director of Clean Energy Finance Tim Buckley was interviewed on ABC News Radio and said the following about US investment plans in nuclear:

"America does not have a single nuclear power plant even at final investment decision, let alone under construction.

"They have 2600 gigawatts of wind, solar and batteries in the investor queue. America is all in on renewables."

According to the World Nuclear Association, the main industry lobby that counts BHP and Rio Tinto as members, the US has no nuclear power reactors under construction and none in the planning stage (approvals, funding or commitments in place).

However, it is worth noting that 13 have been proposed — which according the WNA means there’s a specific program or site proposed but “very uncertain” timing.

And this year ground was broken on a $US4 billion demonstration project in Wyoming, backed by Bill Gates’ nuclear innovation company TerraPower. It's awaiting a permit from the US nuclear regulator, so construction could only begin on non-nuclear elements until approval.

Currently, there are 54 nuclear power plants operating in the US across 28 states, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The EIA says nuclear plants have generated around 20 per cent of total annual electricity since 1990 and the US generates more nuclear power and has more generation capacity than any other country

Over and out

That's a wrap on the week — you can catch Close of Business on ABC News Channel tonight and over the weekend or anytime on iView

And of course catch up on all the teams' stories.

We'll be back bright and early on Monday for the final full week of local trade for the year — the countdown to Christmas and 2025 is on!

Best and worst performers of the session

Here are the biggest percentage moves on the ASX 200 today:

Worst

  • HMC Capital (-7.2%)
  • Bellevue Gold (-4.7%)
  • Pilbara Minerals (-4.2%)
  • Sandfire Resources (-4.2%)
  • Regis Resources (-4.2%)

Best

  • Ventia Services (+10.8%)
  • Iress (+8.2%)
  • Insignia Financial (+6.2%)
  • Paladin Energy (+4.7%)
  • Tabcorp (+4.4%)
Australian Energy Council responds to Coalition nuclear plan

The peak body for energy retailers and generators, the Australian Energy Council has chimed in about the Coaliton's nuclear plan.

The Australian Energy Council’s Chief Executive Louisa Kinnear says the Coalition's plan would "mark a significant departure from the current energy transition trajectory, with far reaching consequences for market design decisions, investment decisions for the sector and the emissions trajectory Australia can achieve."

“We are particularly concerned about the assumed lack of investment in new and replacement generation over the next ten years. 

“We acknowledge both consumers and industry have become concerned with the cost and deliverability of the transition, but slowing investment while we assess technologies only available in the future creates a significant risk for the stability of the energy system. 

 A key issue is the modelling assumes coal remains in the system for longer than asset owners have advised, which could result in reliability issues. 

Given the approach would remain speculative for a number of years as social licence and other hurdles are overcome, the AEC believes the responsible path in the next ten years is to continue with the rollout of available technologies like wind, firmed by gas, pumped hydro and other forms of long duration storage as we assess other alternatives. 

The current focus should be on ensuring a market design that provides the right investment signals for the new and replacement generation needed over the next ten years and beyond.”

The Australian Energy Council is the peak industry body for electricity and downstream natural gas businesses operating in the competitive wholesale and retail energy markets

Market snapshot
  • ASX 200: -0.4% to 8,296 points
  • Australian dollar: -0.1% to 63.61 US cents
  • S&P 500: -0.5% to 6,051 points
  • Nasdaq: -0.7% to 19,902 points
  • FTSE: +0.1% to 8,311 points
  • EuroStoxx: -0.1% to 519 points
  • Spot gold: +0.2% to $US2,687/ounce
  • Brent crude: flat at $US73.40/barrel
  • Bitcoin: +0.2% to $US99,962

Prices current around 4:30pm AEDT.

Live updates on the major ASX indices:

ASX ends in the red, loses 1.5pc over week

The Australian share market has ended lower on Friday, with the ASX 200 losing 0.4 per cent.

The materials sector led the losses, as iron ore futures fell.

Friday's losses left the benchmark index 1.5 per cent lower over the week. Monday was the only session that saw a gain this week, and even then it was just 2 points.

What will happen to the economy in 2025?

Leading economists say 2024's economic conditions centred on the impact of interest rates being used to tame inflation, and cause a 'per capita' recession.

The ongoing strength of the jobs market was a surprise, with high employment meaning people were stretched by rising costs, but most were able to keep making their commitments.

Interest rate cuts are expected to begin in 2025, with the economy set to be dominated by a weak Chinese economy and potentially erratic trade conditions prompted by US President Donald Trump.

Economists expect unemployment will rise in 2025.

Daniel Ziffer talks to independent economist Nicki Hutley, Challenger chief economist Jonathan Kearns, AMP deputy chief economist Diana Mousina and UBS Australia chief economist George Tharenou — watch here:

Iron ore on track for a weekly loss

Iron ore futures retreated on Friday and were on track to end the week lower, as top consumer China's latest vows of further stimulus to shore up its faltering economy failed to impress investors.

The most-traded January iron ore contract on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange ended morning trade 1.3% lower at 795.5 yuan ($US109.34) a metric ton.

The contract has dipped 0.06% so far this week, snapping a three-week rise.

"Markets were highly disappointed at the lack of concrete specifics from China's Central Economic Work Conference, given such a promising start to the week from... the Politburo," said Atilla Widnell, managing director at Navigate Commodities.

The letdown came despite Chinese authorities signaling the fine print on policy would be released in and around March 2025, Widnell added.

Beijing pledged on Thursday to increase its budget deficit, issue more debt and loosen monetary policy as it braces for heightened trade tensions ahead of a second Donald Trump presidency.

The remarks came in a readout of top Chinese leaders' annual Central Economic Work Conference, held on December 11-12.

"With the recovery path for China still bumpy... we'll struggle to see a long-term move higher for iron ore prices," ING analysts said, adding that this will continue until the market sees signs of sustainable economic recovery and growth.

Also pressuring ore prices are high portside stocks, standing at above 150 million tons — the highest ever for this time of the year, ING said.

Wool production tumbles to lowest level in a century

Wool production is set to fall to its lowest level in more than 100 years for the year ending 30 June 25.

The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee is predicting wool production will fall 12 per cent for the 2024-25 financial year, to less than 280 million kilograms.

In a concerning sign for the industry, wool production hasn't been that low since 1920-21.

At the same time, the number of sheep shorn is expected to fall 11.7 per cent to 63.2 million.

To put that in perspective, Australia's sheep flock peaked at around 180 million in the 1970s.

The wool industry is facing pressure on numerous fronts, including poor wool prices and low returns, and competition for land use from cropping and meat production.

The worst hit state is Western Australia, where both sheep shorn and wool production are forecast to fall 18.8 per cent.

It comes as live sheep exports will be banned by 2028,  which has been an essential market for WA farmers. 

Fed to cut next week and three times next year: ANZ

Here's some commentary from ANZ economists, ahead of next week's US central bank meeting.

Brian Martin & Tom Kenny from ANZ Research wrote:

We expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will cut the fed funds rate (FFR) 25bp this month and signal that it will be appropriate to slow the pace of easing in 2025.

We expect three more 25bp cuts in 2025.

We judge the recent stalling in inflation is transitory.

Nonetheless, future caution on rate cuts is warranted.

The possible impact of Trump 2.0 policies on prices is unclear.

It will be appropriate for the Fed to take time to understand the potential effects of new government policies on inflation.

Private sector job creation has slowed, and the labour market is weaker than pre-pandemic.

This argues that the FFR trend remains down.

We will be monitoring how the labour market evolves under the new administration.