That will be it from us today.

It's been a busy week for everyone, so hopefully you'll get some time off over the weekend.

Until then, take care of yourselves.

Among the top performing stocks today were Sigma Healthcare (up 21 cents, +7.22%, to $3.12), Mirvac Group (up 11 cents, +5.5%, to $2.11), and Breville Group (up $1.05, +2.93%, to $36.9).

Among the worst performing stocks were AMP (down 26 cents, -14.86%, to $1.49), Cochlear (down $41.81, -13.73%, to $262.73), and Mineral Resources down $1.68, -4.93%, to $32.39).

Haha. Tell him it's Canberra's version of value-investing. 

Thanks for reading this week. 

Trading's finished for the day.

The ASX200 Index has closed 15.8 points higher (+0.19%) at 8,555.8 points.

"The week ahead" from CBA economist Stephen Wu.

• CommBank spending data shows consumers were a little cautious to start 2025.
• The RBA Board meets next week. CBA expects a 25 basis point cut, kicking off a shallow and gradual easing cycle through 2025.
• Data released after the decision is expected to show a rising unemployment rate and falling annual wages growth.
• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to deliver its fourth 50 basis point cut in a row next week.
• Japanese, UK and Canadian inflation data are due. Minutes from the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting are released.

Paul Bloxham, HSBC Australia chief economist, has circulated some final thoughts about next week's RBA meeting.

Here's what he's thinking:

Expect a 25 basis point cut on 18 February.

The case for the RBA to cut its cash rate is not an unambiguously strong one - but it can be made, and we expect that it will be.

The argument for a cut mainly rests on the most recent inflation figures. They showed a trimmed mean reading of 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 (2.0% annualised) and 2.6% annualised over the past two quarters. 

Although the year-on-year rate was still above the RBA's 2-3% target band, at 3.2%, it was lower than the 3.4% the RBA had forecast in November.

On 24 December, the RBA had noted that "if the future flow of data continued to evolve in line with, or weaker than, [the board's] expectations, it would further increase their confidence that inflation was declining sustainably towards target. If that were to occur, [board] members concluded that it would, in due course, be appropriate to begin relaxing the degree of monetary policy tightness".

That said, there remains a risk that core inflation may not return 'sustainably' to the mid-point of the RBA's target band. The primary driver of this risk is the jobs market. Employment growth has been strong recently, the unemployment rate has edged lower, and so have the timely cyclical indicators such as underemployment and youth unemployment. Recent retail figures also suggest growth is in a modest upswing.

An option is for the RBA to hold steady in February, noting good progress towards its inflation target but that it still is not yet confident enough that progress will be sustained enough to cut. 

Another option is to cut, pointing out that further easing may be quite gradual and will depend on further progress on seeing core inflation fall.

On the margin, given the RBA's guidance, and that we see the current global trade tensions as a downside risk to global growth, we expect them to cut on 18 February. 

In market parlance, we expect a 'hawkish cut', rather than a 'dovish hold'.

On foreign exchange, we see US policy driving the Australian dollar [AUD], with volatility likely, but a generally lower AUD/USD cross rate over the year. 

On Fixed Income, we prefer to tactically fade the recent rate cut repricing through curve flatteners.

With just over an hour to go in the trading week, the ASX200 index is trading 0.32% higher from this morning's open.

Luci Ellis, the chief economist of Westpac Group, has circulated her Friday note.

It's always worth a read.

In this edition she talks about the many things affecting inflation in Australia at the moment, making a distinction between different subcategories of goods and services, how they're affecting the overall average, and how it compares with inflation in the United States (a little).

But her final sentence is key:

"Economy-watchers, including the RBA, can therefore be confident that the 3.2% result for trimmed mean inflation over 2024 (and an annualised rate of 2.7% over the second half of the year) is indeed giving a sufficiently accurate picture of current inflation pressures in Australia, and act accordingly."

That's pretty straight forward. She thinks the RBA would be justified in cutting rates next week.

Sure. We could watch five-hour videos of Berkshire Hathaway AGMs together.

The Bureau of Statistics published its latest arrivals and departures data today, for the month of December.

After that huge disruption during the COVID outbreak and lockdown period, it looks like things have almost got back to normal?

Remember, these statistics report on the number of international border crossings rather than the number of people.

According to the ABS, in December:

• Short-term visitor arrivals: 945,280 – an increase of 7.8% on one year earlier
• Short-term resident returns: 823,000 – an increase of 11.3% on one year earlier
• Total arrivals: 1,853,030 – an increase of 8.7% on one year earlier
• Total departures: 2,262,020 – an increase of 11.6% on one year earlier