Antony Green is now explaining on 7.30 what he believes Australia is seeing in politics, leading into this year's federal election.
"We're seeing a decline in the support for the major parties. At the last federal election, the Coalition got about 36% of the vote," he says.
"The Labor Party got around 32% and everybody else added together came to about 31%.
"Since 2007 when Kevin Rudd won, the vote for minor parties and others and independents has more than doubled, but the number of seats where an independent or a minor party finishes in a contest against the major party — so it's not a two-party contest — the number of those seats has gone from three to 27, and of those 27 seats at the last election, 16 got elected.
"The major party vote is falling over time, so this concentration on two party preferred, sure you can come up with a two party preferred vote, but it doesn't translate into seats if there's so many votes for others.
"The preferential voting system people think always comes down to Labor versus the Coalition. It doesn't, and the last several elections where the number of non-major party contests is growing shows that.
"Now, perhaps that trend might reverse at this election, but realistically, the vote for the major parties has been going down for a number for many years, and all the opinion polls seem to indicate it hasn't changed much since last time."