Tony Sycamore from IG has circulated his afternoon market report that explains what he's been seeing today.
He says the ASX200 plunged 143 points (1.80%) to an intraday low of 7818.3 in early trading today before dip buyers emerged, encouraged by a rebound in US equity futures.
"At this morning’s low, the ASX200 had fallen almost 9% below its mid-February 8615 high. A pullback of this magnitude seemed unimaginable just four weeks ago. However, as circumstances have evolved, so to has the market's response," he says.
"Trump’s tariffs have been implemented more quickly and broadly than anticipated.
"Most bank analysts had expected a more gradual increase in tariffs on China and did not anticipate tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Although the tariffs on Mexico and Canada may be temporary, reciprocal tariffs across US trading partners are now a given."
Mr Sycamore says the market turmoil today was further fulled by comments from President Trump in a Fox News interview.
"When asked about the potential for a recession, Trump did not dismiss the possibility, saying, 'I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big'," he says.
His comments came after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned that the US economy might face a "detox period" for re-balancing.
He notes that, according to US investment bank Goldman Sachs, the chance of a US recession over the next 12 months has increased from 15% to 20%.
"If President Trump and Co continue in the manner they have started, it won't be long until it's a coin toss - closer to 50%," he says.
Turning to Australia's sharemarket, he says tech stocks were hit hard today, taking their lead from heavy falls for the Nasdaq on Wall Street overnight.
DroneShield dived 11.48% to $0.90, Life360 plummeted 8.30% to $21.09, Block, the owner of AfterPay, fell 6.5% to $88.03, and Technology One decreased by 6% to $27.15.
He says despite a strong 4% increase in the Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index for March, reaching 95.9 - its highest level in three years thanks to the RBA's rate cut last month, consumer-facing stocks were friendless.
Baby Bunting dropped 7.16% to $1.75, Temple and Webster fell 4.15% to $16.16, Kogan declined 3.78% to $4.58, and JB Hi-Fi slipped 2.62% lower to $88.95
He says the ASX200 Financial Sector is set to record its sixth straight session of falls. At today's low point, it had fallen 13% below its mid-February peak.
Leading the downturn, Macquarie fell 2.62% to $202.82, AMP lost 2.31% to $1.27, Bendigo Bank dropped 1.25% to $10.24, and CBA decreased by 0.54% to $147.31. In contrast, NAB gained 0.12% to $34.11, Westpac rose 0.89% to $30.67, and ANZ added 1.14% to $29.04.
He says the energy sector has gained despite the price of crude oil trading below $66, straining under the weight of US tariff uncertainty, US growth concerns, the potential lifting of US sanctions on Russia, and OPEC+ opting to increase output.
Woodside rose 1.22% to $23.19, Santos added 0.9% to $6.16, and Beach Energy rose 0.54% to $1.40.