That's all from the business team today.

It's hard to stay upbeat with all the uncertainty surrounding markets and the economy at the moment, but as a wise person once said...

Australia's share market closed only slightly higher on Tuesday, erasing gains made earlier in the day amid tensions in the Middle East and a Gaza ceasefire deadlock breaking.

The S&P/ASX 200 index closed 0.1 per cent higher at 7860.4 points.

Jittery investors are now heading for safe haven investments like gold, as investors seek cover from economic concerns fuelled by US President Donald Trump's tariff policies and as negotiators try to mediate a ceasefire deal.

Gold prices surpassed the $US3,000 an ounce mark on Tuesday, setting a new record high.

Traditionally viewed as a safe asset against economic and geopolitical instability, gold has gained over 14 per cent so far this year, and bullion has hit a record high 14 times.

According to a research note on Tuesday, ANZ raised its zero to 3-month gold price forecast to $3,100 per ounce and 6-month forecast to $3,200 per ounce.

ANZ's forecasters say "we maintain our bullish view (on gold), amid strong tailwinds from escalating geopolitical and trade tensions, easing monetary policy, and strong central bank buying".

The gold price was trading at $US3,010.6 an ounce around market close on Tuesday.

More than 750 Qantas flight attendants employed via labour hire companies will receive pay rises of up to $20,000 after their union capitalised on the Labor government's "same job, same pay laws" to secure the wage increases.

Cabin crew employed by these labour hire companies will now earn the same pay as their colleagues employed directly by Qantas.

For Qantas Domestic cabin crew, the increase in base pay — excluding allowances — is worth up to $20,000 a year.

The lift in hourly pay for casual workers employed by Maurice Alexander Management (MAM), and Altara is between 32 and 42.5 per cent, excluding allowances.

The first pay rises are set to kick in with an uplift in allowances starting from next month, before a full increase to base pay coming into effect from July 14 for Qantas Domestic staff and August 11 for Maurice Alexander Management (MAM) and Altara employees.

"This result demonstrates what can be achieved when companies like Qantas sit down and work with their employees," FAAA Federal Secretary Teri O'Toole said.

"Qantas has shown that big business can lead the way and do things better, and we welcome the change under Vanessa Hudson's leadership."

Ms O'Toole said the "Same Job Same Pay" laws had changed the lives of working cabin crew, but that Federal Opposition Leader Peter Dutton wants to repeal these laws.

Gold prices have broken above $US3000 an ounce.

ABC Bullion general manager Jordan Eliseo spoke with Alicia Barry. He says US President Donald Trump's tariffs are a significant factor in the uptick of gold prices and demand.

You can watch the interview here: 

In February, Australian 'real' unemployment increased 214,000 to 1,834,000 (up 1.4 per cent to 11.5 per cent of the workforce) with significantly more people looking for work, according to a Roy Morgan survey.

Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 11.5 per cent is clearly more than double the ABS estimate of 4.1 per cent in January and roughly in line with the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.1 per cent.

The driver of the increase in unemployment in Roy Morgan's survey were the large falls in full-time employment, down 273,000 to 9,356,000, and a drop in part-time employment, down 99,000 to 4,767,000, which forced many people in the labour market into looking for new work.

The February Roy Morgan Unemployment estimates were obtained by surveying 935,035 Australians aged 14 and over between December 2008 and February 2025.

A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when. The 'real' unemployment rate is presented as a percentage of the workforce (employed & unemployed).

“Since the last Federal Election in May 2022 the population and workforce have both increased by over 1.5 million and well over 800,000 jobs have been created in under three years," said Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine. 

"The soaring population has meant record strong employment growth over the last two years and has been far faster than the long-term average population growth of under 300,000 per year so far this century.

"As well as the disruptions caused by the pandemic and the subsequent population growth, a ‘cost of living crisis’, as inflation and interest rates hit multi-decade highs, has forced many people to seek employment, or stay in the labour force longer than expected to make ends meet."

I looked at how difficult the market has become for jobseekers when last month's ABS data was released showing the unemployment rate jumping to 4.1 per cent. 

You can also listen to this podcast I did with ABC News Daily about why it's getting tougher to find a job, and why some jobseekers describe the job hunt as a similar process to online dating. 

United States-based energy storage solutions company Energy Vault has signed a deal to purchase the Stoney Creek battery energy storage project from Victoria-based renewable energy developer Enervest.

Energy Vault is looking to build its presence in Australia's rapidly growing energy storage sector and announced on Tuesday it has agreed to acquire the estimated $350 million Stoney Creek battery energy storage system (BESS) project located in Narrabri, NSW.

According to Energy Vault, the Stoney Creek BESS has been awarded a 14-year Long-Term Energy Service Agreement by the Australian Energy Market Operator Services.

"The acquisition of Stoney Creek marks a significant milestone for Energy Vault in Australia, as well as an acceleration of our global 'Own & Operate' growth strategy, designed to deliver sustainable, long-term revenue streams with high cash flow generation," said Robert Piconi, chairman and chief executive of Energy Vault.

"We look forward to delivering long-term benefits to NSW's electricity market and consumers for many years to come."

Enervest CEO Ross Warby said they would transfer ownership of Stoney Creek BESS to Energy Vault while continuing to provide end-to-end technical and development services.

"This ensures a structured transition to financial close and the delivery of a high-quality infrastructure project for the North-West Slopes region," he said.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers is hosing down expectations on revenue for the federal budget next week.

In a speech ahead of Tuesday's federal budget, Mr Chalmers flagged that Treasury does not expect the bottom line to "change very substantially" from the December mid-year budget update, which forecast a $33 billion deficit for 2024-25. 

The direct hit to gross domestic product of steel and aluminium tariffs imposed on Australia by US President Donald Trump last week would be "manageable", Treasury said.

It estimates the tariffs would take a 0.02 per cent chunk out of GDP by 2030 — roughly half a billion dollars of today's economic output. You can read more on that in this story Treasurer issues grim message on economy if trade war takes hold.

And watch The Business interview below from last night with leading economist Chris Richardson for more about what the budget holds and why consecutive governments have failed in their budget decisions. 

Superannuation fund Active Super has been directed by the Federal Court to pay a penalty of $10.5 million for making misleading claims about its environmental conduct, known as "greenwashing".

In June 2024, the Federal Court found that Active Super contravened the law when it invested in various securities that it had claimed were eliminated or restricted by its environmental, social and governance (ESG) investment screens.

Active Super claimed in its marketing that it eliminated investments that posed too great a risk to the environment and the community, including gambling, coal mining and oil tar sands.

Following the invasion of Ukraine, Active Super also made representations that Russian investments were "out".

But corporate watchdog ASIC said that contrary to these representations, Active Super held direct and indirect investments in companies such as SkyCity Entertainment Group (gambling), Gazprom PJSC (Russian entity), Shell Plc (oil tar sands) and Whitehaven Coal (coal mining).

ASIC Deputy Chair Sarah Court said the case demonstrated ASIC's commitment to taking on misleading marketing and greenwashing claims made by companies.

"It is our third greenwashing court outcome, and we will continue to keep greenwashing in our sights,'" she said.

The Federal Court's Justice O'Callaghan noted that the contravening conduct continued "over an extensive period of time" (about two and a half years) and that it was likely to have led to investors losing confidence in ESG programs.

On 1 March, Vision Super and Active Super merged into one fund that now has over 165,000 member accounts and about $30 billion in funds under management.

In recent years, regulators including ASIC and the ACCC have been taking greenwashing more seriously. More on that here:

In RBA assistant governor Sarah Hunter's speech today, she quantified the lag between when the Reserve Bank changes interest rates, and when the resulting economic impact peaks.

Dr Hunter says the central bank's modelling shows that it takes nine months for a rate move to have its biggest effect on economic growth.

It takes around twice that long for it to have its peak effect on inflation.

"This could be because it takes time for an increase in demand to affect the hiring decisions of firms and the job search decisions of households, which then ultimately feed into price setting. Or it may simply reflect some 'stickiness' in prices," Dr Hunter said.

Here's a chart showing the lag:

"This tells us that – according to [the RBA's main macroeconomic model] MARTIN at least – the decisions we make today will have their largest effect on economic output at the end of 2025, and on inflation in mid-2026."

You can read more on the speech from business reporter David Taylor here:

Australia may be at the end of its cycle of interest rate cuts if the "tariff madness" instigated by US President Donald Trump escalates into a global trade war, according to NAB CEO Andrew Irvine.

Last month, Australia cut interest rates for the first time since November 2020, to 4.1 per cent.

NAB is forecasting two rate cuts in the latter half of 2025.

Mr Irvine says if global inflation picks up, interest rates will not fall.

"We're not an island," Mr Irvine told the Australian Financial Review Banking Summit. 

"If this tariff madness does happen, we could be at the end of reductions [in Australia]."

In a letter to customers this week, Mr Irvine also noted "interest rates have peaked. If so, we're now in a downward cycle on borrowing costs".

Ian Verrender wrote a detailed analysis today on the Reserve Bank's chief economist saying current economic uncertainty, especially around US tariffs, makes forecasting and rate setting more difficult. You can read that below

-with Reuters