Goodbye

That's it for another day on the markets blog. A fair bit happened for a market that pretty well went nowhere.

The ASX 200 edged up less than 0.1% — still not a bad result given where it started the day.

It was a bruising day for building materials supplier James Hardie after its proud announcement of a $8.8 billion merger/takeover of the NYSE-listed AZEK was not met with applause but the sound of investors bolting for the exit. It dropped more than 14%.

The lender mortgage insurance provider Helia (formerly known as Genworth) had an even worse day, losing a quarter of its value after confirming its major client CBA, which accounts for 44% of its business, was in advanced negotiations with an exclusive deal with another mortgage insurer not named Helia.

Across the region, most markets lost ground or were fairly flat.

Looking ahead, Wall Street is set for a solid start to the week with S&P 500 futures up 0.7%, while tech stocks futures and the small cap futures are up 0.8%.

We'll be back early tomorrow morning for the long haul through to the budget. I'm sad not to be pulling that shift.

Anyway, until next time.

On The Business with Kirstin Aiken tonight

Tomorrow's federal budget is the focus of The Business tonight.

Daniel Ziffer previews Canberra's "night of nights", while Kirsten Aiken talks to Barrenjoey's veteran budget watcher Jo Masters about what to expect and what to look out for.

Kirstin also catches up with nabtrade's Gemma Dale about a fairly lacklustre start to the week on the ASX and the day's two big casualties, Helia and James Hardie.

That's tonight on The Business 8:45pm AEDT on ABC News, after the late news on ABC-TV or catch up anytime on ABC iView.

ASX makes a marginal gain as James Hardie and Helia crash

The ASX battled back from an early stumble to end the day with a marginal gain, pretty well mimicking Wall Street's lacklustre lead.

The ASX 200 closed 0.1% higher, up just 6 points to 7,937 points, while the broader All Ordinaries index was flat, down less than 1 point to 8,158 points.

Financials did most of the heavy lifting, while on the other end of the ASX barbell, the miners were something of a dead weight.

The miners were initially dragged down by falling Chinese economic sentiment and lower bulk-material prices but fought back later in the session.

BHP fell 0.6%, while Fortescue and Mineral Resources made strong gains

Fortescue (+3.2%) benefited from a broker upgrade from UBS (South 32 was hit with a downgrade from the same analysts), while Mineral Resources (+6.9%) benefited from reopening its Onslow Iron Project haulage operations after another road train tumbled off the unsealed road last week.

Supermarkets gave up a bit of last week's gains as investors realised that while they may have dodged a bullet with the ACCC report, it was business as usual in the grocery game.

Banks and insurers were solid in the face of early selling pressures and were the biggest positive on the overall market, with only Macquarie (-0.4%) significantly down.

Investors didn't warm to James Hardie's (-14.3%) announcement of a $14 billion merger with NYSE-listed AZEK.

NRW Holdings (-3.1%) and New Hope (-4.4%) both went ex-dividend this morning.

But the biggest casualty was mortgage insurer Helia (-25.6%) on news it was likely to lose its contract with CBA (and 44% of its business) as the bank noted it was shopping around for alternative mortgage insurers.

Mineral Resources was biggest winner, while Telix Pharmaceuticals gained 4.4% after the US FDA approved its next generation prostate cancer diagnosis kit for use.

Qantas (+2.7%) has also regained a bit of altitude in the midst of global sell-off in aviation stocks.

Market snapshot
  • ASX 200: +0.1% to 7,937 points (live values below)
  • Australian dollar: +0.1% to 62.77US cents
  • Asia: Nikkei flat, Hang Seng -0.1%, Shanghai composite -0.3%
  • Wall Street (Friday): Dow +0.1%, S&P 500 +2.1%, Nasdaq +2.6%
  • Europe (Friday): DAX -0.5%, FTSE -0.6%, Eurostoxx -0.5%
  • Spot gold: flat at $US3,019/ounce
  • Brent crude: -0.3% to $US71.89/barrel
  • Iron ore (Friday): -0.6% to $US99.90 a tonne
  • Bitcoin: +2.1% to $US86,904

Prices current around 4:20 pm AEDT

Live updates on the major ASX indices:

Helia's heavy reliance on CBA a concern: S&P Global

The vertiginous decline of mortgage insurance business can be explained by its heavy reliance on CBA for its business, a business it concedes it may well lose.

At 3pm AEDT, Helia shares were down more than 25% to $3.60 per share.

On S&P Global's numbers, CBA accounted for 44% of Helia's gross written premiums in 2024.

Helia told the ASX via a statement this morning that it had been informed that CBA had entered into exclusive negotiations with an alternative provider of lender mortgage insurance (LMI) services.

If the negotiations result in CBA changing its LMI supplier, Helia said its contract would not be renewed beyond the current expiry date of December 31, 2025.

Helia CEO Pauline Blight-Johnston said she was "disappointed" by the development after a 50-year partnership with CBA.

"We will continue to work closely with CBA to ensure that we are supporting both CBA and its borrowers through to December 2025 and beyond," Ms Blight-Johnston said.

The ratings agency S&P Global said the termination of the contract would hinder future business flows for the supplier of lenders' mortgage insurance.

"Given that earnings are recognized over 15 years, the effect on operating performance would be gradual," S&P noted.

CBA's decision to look elsewhere for an LMI provider follows a decision by NAB in 2020 to switch from Helia (then known as Genworth Mortgage Insurance) to QBE.

Coincidently, Ms Blight-Johnston filed a director's change of interest notice with the ASX showing she had sold about 150,000 shares in three tranches last week valued at $840,000,  having exercised her rights to transfer her entitlement to 25,000 shares into fully paid shares earlier in the month.

However, boardroom colleague and independent Helia director JoAnne Stephenson is well and truly out of the money, with her change of interest notice this morning showing she picked up 10,000 shares valued at $49,000 on Friday.

Supermarket stocks give back some gains

Shares in both Woolworths and Coles are underperforming the broader market today.

Coles has dropped 1.4 per cent, while Woolies shares are down 1.1 per cent.

IGA-supplier Metcash is also on the slide, down 1.3 per cent.

However, it follows a big bounce for all three companies on Friday — in the final session of last week, Coles (+4.9%) and Metcash (+3.6%) both rose, while Woolworths (+6.3%) had its best session in about five years.

That was after the ACCC released its report after its year-long inquiry into the supermarket sector, which revealed Australia's supermarkets to be among the world's most profitable, and indicated the dominance of the two major players was set to continue.

Here are the details of what the regulator found, and why it was treated as relatively "benign" by investors, from business reporter Emilia Terzon:

But, as chief business correspondent Ian Verrender wrote, we've been here before, and the dominance of just a few major players isn't an anomaly for Australia:

ASX dips, banks rise, James Hardie tumbles

The ASX 200 has made up a bit of lost ground to be down 0.1% to 7,921 points at 12:45pm AEDT. 

The broader All Ordinaries index is down 0.2% to 8,143 points.

Financials are doing most of the heavy lifting, while on the other end of the ASX barbell, the miners have largely been a dead weight.

The miners have been dragged down by falling Chinese economic sentiment and lower bulk-material prices (although copper managed to eke out a rise on Friday).

BHP was down 0.8%, while Fortescue and Mineral Resources bucked the trend.

Fortescue (+1.7%) benefited from a broker upgrade from UBS, while Mineral Resources (+2.8%) has reopened its Onslow Iron Project haulage operations after another road train tumbled off the unsealed road last week.

Supermarkets have given up a bit of last week's gains as investors have realised that while they may have dodged a bullet with the ACCC report, it is business as usual in the grocery game.

Banks and insurers have avoided selling pressures this morning and have been the biggest positive on the overall market, with only Macquarie (-0.3%) significantly down.

Investors haven't warmed to James Hardie's (-12.6%) announcement of a $14 billion merger with NYSE-listed AZEK.

NRW Holdings (-3.1%) and New Hope (-6.1%) both went ex-dividend this morning.

But the biggest casualty this morning is mortgage insurer Helia (-26.2%) on news it may lose its contract with CBA as the bank noted it was shopping around for alternative mortgage insurers.

Mineral Resources is biggest gainer this morning, while Telix Pharmaceuticals is up 2.6% after the US FDA approved its next generation prostate cancer diagnosis kit for use.

Qantas (+2.2%) has also regained a bit of altitude in the midst of global sell-off in aviation stocks.

Market snapshot
  • ASX 200: -0.1% to 7,921 points (live values below)
  • Australian dollar: +0.3% to 62.85US cents
  • Asia: Nikkei +0.2%, Hang Seng +0.3%, Shanghai +0.1%
  • Wall Street (Friday): Dow +0.1%, S&P 500 +2.1%, Nasdaq +2.6%
  • Europe (Friday): DAX -0.5%, FTSE -0.6%, Eurostoxx -0.5%
  • Spot gold: flat at $US3,024/ounce
  • Brent crude: -0.3% to $US71.97/barrel
  • Iron ore (Friday): -0.6% to $US99.90 a tonne
  • Bitcoin: +0.5% to $US85,626

Prices current around 12:45 pm AEDT

Live updates on the major ASX indices:

US Treasury bond sell off

Very good question Chrisso.

For an answer, I'll appropriate a line from NAB's senior FX strategist Rodrigo Catril who studies such things.

In today's pre-market morning note, Mr Catril wrote: 

The FOMC announcement our Thursday morning was one big factor for the move lower in yields where Chair Powell saw the impact of tariffs on inflation as "transitory". NY Fed President Williams and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee reiterated that message on Friday, noting any inflationary impact from tariffs has the potential to be short-lived.

Hope that helps.

ASX scrambles back to par

Woo hoo! The ASX has scrambled back into positive territory, albeit briefly, up 1 point at midday.  (It's now submerged back into the red down 5 points, but still not too bad).