Prices current around 4:45pm AEDT
After seesawing throughout the day, the All Ordinaries and ASX 200 have lost some of their earlier gains to close moderately higher, with surging gold prices offset by international trade uncertainty.
The All Ords closed +0.12% to 8195 and the ASX 200 was +0.16% to 7982.
These were the top and bottom sectors:
Brent Crude oil and the AUD were lower, and Bitcoin fell sharply.
Gold continued to rise, ending the day +0.58% to US$3073, a new record high.
That's one possibility Phillip. Thanks for sharing your thoughts
And now for a guest post by my colleague David Taylor:
There’s broad consensus from financial markets and economist the RBA will be on hold next week.
As RBC Capital Markets noted, from an RBA perspective, “the PM’s decision to call an election on 3 May is quite neat and likely lends some support to staying on the sidelines following next week’s 31 Mar-1 Apr board meeting.”
“Having cut rates in May and jawboning against market expectations of multiple cuts, the case for a follow up cut next week is not particularly compelling. Inflation is moving in the right direction but the RBA is likely to want confirmation that underlying inflation is firmly back in its target range with the full quarterly CPI due at the end of April.”
“The labour market also still errs tight but the last labour force print has thrown up a little uncertainty and the RBA will want to see more global data and developments to try and gauge the impact and risks to AU from rising global protectionism.
“Staying low during an election campaign is preferable,” chief economist Su-Lin Ong said.
But another investment bank is discounting the democratic process’ influence on monetary policy.
Goldman Sachs economists believe Tuesday’s RBA board meeting will be live.
Economist sat Goldman Sachs believe the April meeting could go either way because the RBA has a propensity to surprise expectations and Australia’s economic fundamentals support the case for further easing.
“Given this macro backdrop and the fact that the RBA’s forecasts are yet to incorporate downside risk from uncertainty on global trade policy, we see a solid case for the RBA to front-load the easing cycle,” Goldman’s chief Australia economist Andrew Boak wrote in a note to clients.
A “solid case”?
That’d be music to the ears of millions of mortgage borrowers.
It might not come as any surprise but new research from Finder shows cost of living will be a make or break election issue, with a third of those questioned stating the rising cost of living will change how they vote.
Healthcare and Medicare ranked second in importance (48%) followed by housing affordability (43%) and economic issues related to jobs and wages (34%).
Have you found housing affordability is a growing concern for you? I'm working on a story on first home buyers and would love to hear from you if you are happy to share your story on camera. Please get in touch if so at Nadia.Daly@abc.net.au
Markets in Asia will be nervously watching on April 2nd when the US President Trump is set to announce reciprocal tariffs. This is an extension of the tariffs already announced against China (20%). ANZ research has taken a closer look at the implications for the region.
ANZ analysts note:
"While the date of this announcement has been known for a while, not a lot of it has been priced into markets, in our view. Comments from Kevin Hassett, the director of National Economic Council, that markets are overestimating the scope and reports that the tariffs will be more targeted have provided some relief for markets earlier in the week. However, a reality check came when President Trump announced 25% tariffs on all car imports effective from 3April. While we may not see an across-the-board tariff immediately, Asia still looks to be in the crosshairs."
Among the top 15 trading partners that the US runs the largest bilateral trade deficit against, nine are in Asia:
One of the biggest impacts will be the trade uncertainty which ANZ analysts say will slow Asia’s exports and impact the region’s growth.
"The lack of predictability makes it very difficult for markets to adequately price tariff risks in. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicates that trading partners have scope to negotiate the reciprocal tariff rate lower. This indicates that the 2 April announcement is only the start of a protracted period of bargaining, which adds to the uncertainty."
"China’s attempt to boost consumption will help offset the weakness from the country’s exports but may not be sufficient to support the wider region
Financial conditions remain supportive in part due to the monetary policy easing across the region to date. However, we see a limit to how much further Asian central banks can cut rates. Asian currencies may need to bear the brunt of the tariff impact."
The competition watchdog has given its final determination in favour of the Virgin Australia-Qatar deal. That means from June Qatar Airways will provide aircraft and crew for the new daily flights out of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Melbourne to Doha, which will be sold by Virgin Australia.
The arrangement, known as a 'wet lease', is for 5 years and will double the frequency of flights between Doha and major Australian airports, according to the ACCC.
They'd already granted draft approval last month, but this is the final green light for the deal to go ahead.
ACCC Commissioner Anna Brakey:
“We consider that the conduct is likely to result in public benefits such as adding additional capacity on flights between Australia and the Middle East and is likely to result in minimal, if any, public detriment,”
“This will likely place downward price pressure on these routes and will also give customers of Virgin Australia and Qatar Airways a greater choice of international flights with additional connectivity and loyalty program benefits.”
There's a new buzzword in Australia's housing debate: 'forever renters'. So is it is still possible to achieve financial security while renting? Lucia Stein and Kate Jones investigate:
As the political leaders get ready to hit the road for the election campaign, now that the PM has officially announced Australians are heading to the polls on May 3, Reserve Bank board members are preparing for their two-day meeting, kicking off on Monday.
Market pricing indicates there will be no change to interest rates when the decision is announced at 2:30pm AEDT on Tuesday.
Here's what RBC Capital Markets chief economist Su-Lin Ong and macro rates strategist Robert Thompson have to say on the budget, the election and the upcoming central bank meeting:
"The government will be hoping for a boost from the 2025/26 Budget as well as some encouraging economic data to highlight its economic credentials.
"Recent monthly inflation suggests an ongoing moderation as underlying inflation moves back within the RBA's target range, the [unemployment rate] remains low at 4.1%, and the RBA has begun cutting rates.
"Cost of living pressures remain the key issue for the voters and we would expect to see further modest announcements in the run up to election day.
"The budget includes an extra $13bn over the next 4 years for 'decisions taken not yet announced'.
"It remains to be seen how much global uncertainty and developments, including likely reciprocal tariffs on Australia, will affect household and business confidence and play a role in this election campaign. Who voters trust to run the economy and who is the best economic manager may play a bigger role than usual in voting decisions.
"From an RBA perspective, the PM's decision to call an election on 3 May is quite neat and likely lends some support to staying on the sidelines following next week's 31 Mar-1 Apr board meeting.
"Having cut rates in May and jawboning against market expectations of multiple cuts, the case for a follow up cut next week is not particularly compelling.
"Inflation is moving in the right direction but the RBA is likely to want confirmation that underlying inflation is firmly back in its target range with the full quarterly CPI due at the end of April.
The labour market also still errs tight but the last labour force print has thrown up a little uncertainty and the RBA will want to see more global data and developments to try and gauge the impact and risks to AU from rising global protectionism.
"Staying low during an election campaign is preferable."
And if you're keen for more coverage of the election announcement and what we know so far on the policy front from both major parties, follow the ABC News politics live blog in a new tab:
The Australian share market has moved into positive territory after a shaky start to the day, with the ASX200 up 0.31% to 7,993 points at 12:35 AEDT.
As we mentioned, gold has been soaring. But technology stocks haven't been faring as well, with US tariffs making investors broadly nervous about that sector, among others.
Here are the sectors doing the best and worst at the moment: