That's it for another day on the blog.

The ASX 200 did better than expected, gaining 0.4% but still fell just shy of recapturing the 8,000-point mark.

It was a day where the trade war loomed large as two more companies, Flight Centre and Brambles, cut their guidance in the face of an economic downturn.

Politics also played its part with credit ratings agency Standard and Poor's warning Australia risked losing its cherished AAA credit rating due to larger, structural deficits, and debt and interest expenses rising.

Looking ahead, US futures are pointing to declines on Wall Street tonight.

Thanks for your company, until next time ...

 The ASX 200 wilted somewhat in the final hour of trade, weighed down by US futures pointing to falls across all sectors tonight.

The ASX 200 closed 0.4% higher to 7.997 points, having at one stage put on 1% in the morning session.

The broader All Ordinaries closed 0.4% higher at 8,204 points.

Most sectors made gains with the exception of basic materials and the miners.

The banks continued their recent rebound, with Bendigo and Adelaide Bank taking turns at the head of the peloton, up 1.9%, while CBA was in an unaccustomed spot of carrying the Lanterne Rouge at the rear of the pack, down 1.1%.

The tech sector suffered a noticeable reversal late in the day as Nasdaq futures fell but still ended up with solid gains. 

Of the miners, beaten-up mineral sands producer Iluka (+5.2%) had a much better day, buoyed by its strategic deposits of rare earth minerals.

The ASX 200's top mover was Iluka, while technical services and testing outfit ALS gained 3.9% on a profit upgrade.

Slightly out of shot, Flight Centre gained 1% after downgrading its profit guidance but announcing a buy-back and plans to deal with the current turbulence, including cutting jobs.

In the bottom movers' section, Brambles fell 5.0% after cutting its revenue guidance for the year.

Telix Pharmaceuticals was down 6.6% after the US FDA blocked its brain cancer treatment "in its current form".

• ASX 200: +0.4% to 7,997 points (live values below)
• Australian dollar: +0.1% to 64.00 US cents
• Asia: Nikkei +0.3%, Hang Seng +0.2%, Shanghai comp +0.1%
• Wall Street (Friday): Dow +0.1%, S&P 500 +0.7%, Nasdaq +1.3%
• Europe (Friday): DAX +0.8%, FTSE +0.1%, Eurostoxx +0.8%
• Spot gold: -0.7% to $US3,293/ounce
• Brent crude: +0.5% to US$67.19/barrel
• Iron ore: flat at $US99.80/tonne
• Bitcoin: flat at $US94,281

Prices current at around 4:15pm AEST

Live updates on the major ASX indices:

On The Business tonight, the ASX responds to growing investor anger over the James Hardie-Azek proposed merger, announcing a review of listing rules for shareholder approvals.

• Kirsten Aiken talks to Allan Gray's Portfolio Manager Suhas Nayak about what it means for investors.
• Downing the tools! Rhiana Whitson reports on the threat to Australian manufacturing's future from the disappearance of toolmaking and pattern making trades.
• And UBS Global Wealth Management Australia's chief investment officer, Andrew McCauley, joins Kirsten Aiken to discuss whether there are signs of negotiation between China and the US in the trade and tariff war.

That's The Business, 8:45pm AEST ABC News, after the Late News on ABC-TV and anytime on ABC iView.

US futures are highlighting the fact that serious uncertainty remains about the 90-day tariff pause.

We're now 20% through the pause and, in reality, nothing much has happened, publicly at least.

So, here's what the futures market is telling us (at 3:45pm AEST) about tonight on Wall Street:

• S&P 500 futures: -0.5%
• Dow futures: -0.4%
• Nasdaq futures: -0.6%

Looking across the Atlantic, Germany's Dax futures are up marginally, and the FTSE looks likely to be flat.

While the majority of pre-election attention has been placed on the impacts and costs of the two major parties' policies, not many column inches have been dedicated to what the betting markets frame as the most likely outcome — a minority government.

Morgan Stanley's strategy team headed by Chris Nichol has had a look at the macro impacts of Labor and the Coalition's policies, as well as what impact a minority government would have on those plans.

"In our view, both major parties look likely to continue the path of strong government spending, at least in the near-term, that should provide some underlying demand support for the economy (offset by medium-term productivity and fiscal sustainability risks)," Mr Nichol wrote.

"At the same time, we don't expect either policy package is likely to meaningfully alter the private sector sentiment or outlook, with the possible exception of the housing market."

However, throw a minority government into the mix and you may get an entirely different outcome.

Mr Nichol points out the last minority government, the 2010-2013 Gillard/Rudd administration formed with three independents and one Green MP, saw a sharp slowing in public sector spending growth.

"In our view, given the reliance on government spending in recent economic outcomes, a minority government would pose more near-term risk for growth, given the experience of the last minority government (2010) was a subsequent sharp slowing in public spending," Mr Nichol said.

For what it's worth, the bookies price in a 60% chance of a minority government after Saturday's election.

Hi team,

Just jumping in with some thoughts I haven't been able to shake since watching Treasurer Jim Chalmers and the man who wants his job, Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor, debate in Melbourne last week.

It was prompted by a remark from a Liberal candidate for the Tasmanian seat of Braddon, Mal Hingston.

He reportedly told a local forum the Dutton approach to workplace relations would be to "rewind stuff the Albanese Government has done and put things back to the way they were".

Workers "happy" with $10 an hour, candidate claims 

His point was that changes to work legislation by the Albanese government had brought unintended consequences, such as stopping older "grey nomad" workers from coming to Tasmania to pick fruit.

"(They used to) come down here to Tassie, and just plod along, and they were happy with $10 an hour, or whatever it was."

The suggestion was that the work was social in nature and the workers were happy with the lower rate for "piece work", which is about half the minimum wage rate.

The comments were seized up by ACTU secretary Sally McManus as evidence of a plan by the Coalition to cut wages and conditions.

Here's a statement from the peak union body:

"The Coalition say they won't release a workplace relations policy this election. Now at least one Tasmanian Liberal has been honest enough to say that a Dutton government would rewind Labor’s workplace reforms.

"The Liberals' Mal Hingston sees nothing wrong in expecting older workers to work for piece rates of $10 an hour. He'd like low wages to come back and confirmed that's what a Dutton Government would try to do if elected…

“It means a total lack of government support for minimum wage increases in the upcoming annual wage review, which sets the floor under the wages of all award-reliant workers.

"Wages would also be cut because all of the employers' wage-cutting schemes would be back again alongside the boom in wage theft we saw under the last Coalition Government."

To be clear, the ABC is not suggesting that the comments by a Liberal candidate constitute the industrial relations (IR) policy of the Coalition.

Coalition: stuck on IR

What the comments do show is how vulnerable the Coalition is on the issue of IR, and how reluctant it is to getting into a fight about it.

Since the "WorkChoices" election that doomed John Howard's 11-year term as prime minister, the Coalition has shied away from using a megaphone to direct attention to its policies on working conditions and pay.

On the website that contains an extensive list of policies, these are the few I could find with direct links to the working lives of Australians:

• Reverse the damaging aspects of Labor’s complex industrial relations reforms, including returning to a simple definition of a casual worker.
• Curtail union militancy in Australian workplaces and reintroduce a tougher Australian Building and Construction Commission.

(There are many policies about workers paying less tax and elements like the cut to fuel excise. I'm talking about the 'earning it' side of the coin).

Labor: stuck on tax reform

But they're not the only ones stuck.

In 2019 Labor took plans to grandfather negative gearing (which essentially takes losses on property investment off the taxable income you pay) and franking credits (a benefit that goes to people with certain types of shares) to the election. 

It lost and has essentially disavowed any attempt to reform these elements of the tax system, which are in theory available to everyone but are largely used by people who are older and wealthier.

That Dr Chalmers even requested Treasury do modelling on the potential impact of negative gearing caused a storm of debate.

Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor said the government must immediately "come clean" on its plans.

"The Prime Minister last night denied his government had modelled negative gearing changes," he wrote this month.

"The Treasurer confirmed in September it had. The Prime Minister lied to the Australian public on camera about his hidden plans to raise taxes on housing.

“If Labor has nothing to hide, it should release this modelling and allow Treasury to provide a full briefing to the Opposition on the detail, timing, and nature of these requests."

The government has said it has no plans to change negative gearing or revive its franking credits plan.

So, where are we?

Like I said, this still takes me back to a ballroom, listening to two eloquent people getting stuck into each other about the things they would do if returned or elected.

But each of them doing their best to not talk about the substantial elements that affect our lives — work and tax — which have frightened voters off in the past.

As always, if you want to stay up to date on the campaign, open the ABC News federal election 2025 blog in a new tab.

Time to check in on the biggest and most widely held stocks — the ASX 20.

The blue-chip index is rising pretty much in line with ASX 200, both up 0.8% at 2:30pm AEST.

Santos and CSL have made strong gains, +2.4% and 2.2% respectively, while the two biggest companies by market cap CBA (-0.5%) and BHP -1.2%) are the biggest drags, and along with Fortescue (-0.2%) are the only stocks in the red today.

The always interesting CBA commodities analyst Vivek Dhar has just popped out a note on China's steel production — an issue of great importance to our big iron ore and coking coal miners.

Mr Dhar has looked at the Chinese steel mills profitability — the losses are smaller, but still losses — versus a recent increase in production.

"While steel mill margins turned less negative in late March, the shift was not enough to explain the strong annual uptick in China's steel output last month," Mr Dhar wrote.

CBA's forecast is for Chinese steel production to drop by about 2% this year, that's on top of last year's 1.7% decline.

Currently, between 15 to 20 per cent of Chinese steel production is in goods for export markets, markets very much at ground zero in a global trade war.

The Chinese construction sector, another big customer of the steel mills, is still struggling - so there are two significant headwinds for steel production right away.

However, Mr Dhar says it is worth noting that domestic construction in China has started the year strongly.

"The construction subcomponent of the non-manufacturing PMI has increased through Q1 2025, with the March result indicating the strongest expansion since May 2024," Mr Dhar said.

"The construction index includes construction activity linked to infrastructure and housing, which each account for ~30% of China's steel demand."

Mr Dhar says markets are to an extent playing a waiting game to see, what, if anything the Chinese administration will offer as stimulus in the wake of the tariff war between US and China.

"China's economy faces significant headwinds even if both China and the US continue to provide tariff exceptions.

"This suggests that the size, timing and composition of China's stimulus will be crucial to China's steel production."

India steel production growth continues to outpace all global producers thanks to strong demand from its construction sector, government infrastructure spending and manufacturing.

However, the Indian boom is now also showing signs of slowing.

"India's steel output growth though has slowed notably — almost halving from 11.8%/yr in 2023 to 6.3%/yr in 2024," Mr Dhar said.

Shares in travel group Flight Centre have rebounded from early losses, and are currently up 1.4 per cent.

In a statement to the ASX, the company warned that the "current uncertainty" brought on by US trade and border policies, which has come ahead of its busiest trading months of May and June, means it is unlikely to reach its profit target for the current financial year.

"The recent US developments have exacerbated the volatile trading conditions experienced throughout the year," the statement read.

The company flagged job cuts, announcing it was on track to reduce its full-time employee numbers by 5 per cent by the end of the year in its corporate business, and had a recruitment freeze in place in other businesses.

It also announced an up to $200 million share buy-back.

Flight Centre chief executive Graham Turner spoke to The Business last week.

Mr Turner said he expects a decline in travel to accelerate in coming months.

"April and May are going to be a lot worse for travel to the US in terms of numbers out of Australia," Mr Turner said last Tuesday.

"Some people don't like what Trump's saying and doing.

"Other people are worried about border control and the conditions of coming into the US and whether they've complied with everything."

Watch Mr Turner's interview with Alicia Barry: