That's it for today. Thanks for joining us.
Tomorrow the Bureau of Statistics will release its highly-anticipated March quarter inflation data. It will be a key piece of data that will inform the Reserve Bank's rates meeting next month.
It comes out at 11:30am (AEST). We'll cover it in the blog, along with any accompanying economic commentary.
Until then, take care of yourselves.
Prices current around 4:50pm AEST.
Live updates on the major ASX indices:
Among the best performing stocks were Boss Energy (up 40 cents, +14.29%, to $3.20), Mineral Resources (up $2.39, +13.15%, to $20.57), and Paladin Energy (up 48 cents, +8.5%, to $6.13).
Among the worst performers were Northern Star Resources (down 99 cents, -4.74%, to $19.88), James Hardie (down 26 cents, -0.71%, to $36.57), and Resmed (down 18 cents, -0.49%, to $36.75)
Trading has finished on the ASX today, and the ASX200 index has gained 73.5 points (+0.92%) to close on 8,070.6 points.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, has circulated her take on Donald Trump's first 100 days in office.
"He will go down in history as the President who triggered the most unnecessary trade war in history," she argues.
"US consumer sentiment fell to one of the lowest reads on record, and long-term inflation expectations spiked to the highest since 1991.
"The US economy has certainly taken an unnecessary hit from tariff uncertainty, as GDP is expected to have dropped from 2.4% to 0.4% in just three months...
"The stock markets print their worst 100 days of a President since 1974 while the US dollar is losing its safe haven and reserve demand.
"Oh well...
Regarding the trading in Europe so far this week, she says the week kicked off on a slightly positive note for European equities on continued expectations that the disinflationary impact of Trump’s trade policies would allow the European Central Bank to give ample support to the underlying economies in Europe.
But she notes how fluid the situation is, and how there are still competing schools of thought about the whole mess.
She says some people think that the impact from Trump's tariffs will be temporary, while others - including Fed members - are starting to think that the impact could last longer than just a one-off jump in prices, while others are still hoping that Trump will have no choice but to dial back his tariffs since the rest of the world has shown "much greater resilience" to Trump's attacks, with China in particular appearing ready to "fight to the last dime."
"The good news of the day is that it’s been a few days since we last heard fresh attacks by Trump," she says.
"It feels like he’s been obliged to slow down the pace and intensity of his attacks.
"The bad news is, there is no clarity regarding the tariff situation, and the best outcome would be that the US keeps the 10% tariffs for everyone even if negotiations go well and lead to a favourable outcome."
One of the S&P analysts behind the note warning about the risks posed by election spending promises, Anthony Walker, spoke to The Business this afternoon to discuss his note yesterday warning that Australia's triple-A credit rating could come under pressure if the government and opposition didn't take action
"The triple-A is not at risk, it's on stable outlook. We don't expect to change it.
"What we were highlighting, though, was the missing part of the conversation at the moment.
"We're seeing election spending going on. We're seeing revenue headwinds when it comes to global trading conditions, as well as global growth.
"But where's the money going to come from to spend on these election commitments?
"Particularly going forward, when you've got rising health, education, pension, NDIS and defence spending, there's a lot of pressure there, and we've got new spending on top of that, including off-the-budget spending.
"So the question we were raising is, where's the money coming from? Is anyone going to tell us? Is it coming from savings new taxes, or are they going to debt fund it by higher deficits going forward?"
Mr Walker said he expects deficits going forward of around 2-2.5% of GDP, but weaker economic conditions and election spending commitments could blow that out.
He warns that if the deficit ends up doubling to 4-5% of GDP over the next decade then the triple-A rating "could come under pressure".
You can watch the full interview between Kirsten Aiken and Anthony Walker on The Business tonight at 8:44pm on ABC News Channel or anytime on iView.
Thanks Peter, that's a good point. And if we have to re-calibrate our expectations about housing as an asset class, how long will that process take?
Vivek Dhar, CBA's mining and energy commodities analyst, has circulated an interesting note on coal prices.
He says thermal coal futures (thermal coal is primarily used for generating electricity) have declined 24% this year to just under $US94/tonne, which is the lowest level since May 2021.
He says premium coking coal spot prices (coking coal is used to produce steel) started the year poorly too, but they have since recovered.
What's going on?
He says 10-15% of thermal coal exports are making losses at current prices, so it's hard to see thermal coal prices falling meaningfully further.
"Prices may therefore track more sideways in the near term, with Chinese stimulus being a key positive catalyst in the near term," he says.
With coking coal, he says the generally poor start to seaborne coal prices so far this year can be partly explained by the pick-up in China's coal production (+8.1%/yr in Q1 2025), which has seen China's imports of coal decline.
"China’s self-sufficiency in thermal and coking coal is estimated at ~95% and 80-85% respectively, helping explain why a modest uptick in China’s coal output has such a pronounced negative impact on China’s coal import demand," he says.
He says coking coal demand was also weak at the start of the year with global steel output falling 4.4%/yr in January and 3.4%/yr in February.
But the recent uplift in spot coking coal prices is consistent with the pick-up in global steel production last month (+2/9%/year).
He says India’s steel output growth has been impressive (+6.8%/yr in Q1 2025), supported by strong underlying demand from India’s construction sector –particularly infrastructure. India accounted for ~22% of the world’s coking coal imports last year.
And supply disruptions at Australia’s Appin and Moronbah North coking coal mines have also prompted coking coal prices higher in recent weeks.
Have you run into problems with builders warranty insurance?
Lawyers and consumer advocates say builders warranty insurance — just one of the various names the product is known by across Australia — is complex and doesn't offer adequate protection for consumers.
There are calls for national minimum standards, including limits on how long it should take for insurance claims to be settled.
Our colleague Nassim Khadem has written about the issues here, starting with the case study of Amarjit Singh Pabla.
In December 2014, Mr Pabla signed a contract to build eight apartments using about $200,000 worth of his superannuation savings, a $1.6 million loan from the bank, and about $420,000 borrowed from friends and relatives.
But after the builder he contracted went bankrupt in February 2022, the entire building was found to be defective, making all eight apartments unsaleable.
Mr Pabla says he has spent the past three years fighting insurance company QBE to get a payout to repair the building defects, sell the property and move on with his life.
Tony Sycamore from IG has circulated his afternoon note.
He says barring a dramatic sell-off in the last hour of today's trading session, the ASX200 is set to close above 8,000 points for the first time in almost eight weeks.
"The driver of today’s gains is reports that President Trump will reduce the impact of automotive tariffs by easing duties on foreign-made parts in US-made cars to prevent tariff stacking," he says.
"Faced with elevated market volatility, dismal opinion polls, industry pressure, potential supply chain issues, and the threat of retaliation and stagflation, it would be another step by President Trump to scale back elevated tariffs.
While S&P500 equity futures have responded with a modest rise of 0.14%, the ASX200 has seen a much stronger response, supported by end-of-month flows and investors forced to chase the rally after missing the best part of its impressive 900-point rally from the 7,169 low it struck earlier this month.
He says Mineral Resources has soared 14.63% to $20.80 following its quarterly update after management said that an equity raising would not be required.
Fortescue has jumped 4.6% to $16.19 following its quarterly update, which showed shipments rose 6% compared to the prior corresponding period. Rio Tinto has added 1.6% to $116.85, and BHP has gained 1.43% to $38.20.
He says the tariff-free real estate sector has extended its gains as investors seek opportunities in a lower-growth and lower-interest-rate world where REIT returns become all the more attractive.
Goodman Group has climbed 1.8% to $29.49, REA has added 1.5% to $246.42, and Scentre has risen 1.42% to $3.58.