The Coalition is set to lose three big names in the lower house — Shadow Foreign Minister David Coleman, Shadow Housing and Social Services Minister Michael Sukkar, and of course Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.
Sukkar is perhaps the least surprising of the three, given his seat of Deakin was technically on a margin of 0.0 per cent after last year's redistribution of Victoria's electorate boundaries.
His primary vote has dropped by 5.1 per cent, (with 51 per cent of the vote counted), though most of that vote appears to have gone to Climate 200-backed independent Jess Ness, who polled at 8.2 per cent, rather than Labor's Matt Gregg, who improved on his 2022 primary vote by 2.5 per cent and is set to win the seat on Green preferences.
David Coleman was sitting on a slightly more comfortable margin of 2.6 per cent — not generally considered a comfortable margin, but in an election that was expected to result in Labor losing its majority, it's fair to say he wouldn't have been expecting to lose his seat.
That seat is Banks, in southern Sydney, which Coleman has held since 2013. Labor's Zhi Soon, who unsuccessfully contested the seat at the last election, has improved his primary vote by 0.9 per cent (with 53.2 per cent counted), but it's enough to get him over the edge given Coleman's 7.3 per cent lower primary vote.
And finally, Dickson is looking like a comfortable win for the Labor Party, with Ali France almost dead even with Peter Dutton on the primary vote, but scoring a 7.8 per cent 2PP swing on the back of Green and teal preferences.
The opposition leader was never a lock to retain his suburban Brisbane seat — it was, after all, the most marginal seat in Queensland going into this election — but he'd managed to win it at every election since he entered parliament in 2001.
In fact, that was one of the things Anthony Albanese said he admired about Dutton, when asked to name one of his opponent's admirable traits during a debate.