The local share market has turned around from a negative start to the day to close higher amid optimism about a forthcoming US trade deal, spruiked by the President Donald Trump.

As we reported, Mr Trump today posted that a "MAJOR TRADE DEAL WITH REPRESENTATIVES OF A BIG, AND HIGHLY RESPECTED, COUNTRY. THE FIRST OF MANY!!!" will be announced Thursday morning, US time, which news outlets have reported will be with the UK.

That prospects made markets exhale and gave renewed hope more trade deals could be around the corner ("THE FIRST OF MANY!!!") to unwind the tariffs the president announced last month.

The ASX 200 closed 0.2% higher, at 8191, while the All Ords was in similar territory +0.3% at 8421, and the Aussie dollar was flat at 64.2 US cents.

At the moment, US futures are pointing up for tomorrow's trading day on Wall Street. 

My colleague Michael Janda will have all the latest on that when he joins you here tomorrow morning.

• ASX 200: +0.3% to 8,421 points
• Australian dollar: +0.1% to 64.2 US cents
• Wall Street: Dow Jones (0.7%), S&P 500 (+0.4%), Nasdaq (+0.3%)
• Europe: FTSE (-0.4%), DAX (-0.6%), EuroStoxx 600 (-0.5%)
• Spot gold: -0.7% to $US3341/ounce
• Brent crude: +0.8% to $US61.60/barrel
• Iron ore: +0.8% to $US98.25/tonne

Values at approx. 4:25pm AEST

Live updates on the major ASX indices:

After yesterday's news that ASIC was taking action against Macquarie Bank, this article by my colleague David Taylor is food for thought.

He reports sources have told the ABC that Australia’s finance industry is riddled with dodgy transactions.

Read more here:

Right before last Christmas, sports streaming giant DAZN acquired Australia's Foxtel. 

Now it's just acquired the rights for the AFL and NRL.

If you need a refresher on the basics, I did a story about it at the time, sitting down with Foxtel's CEO:

For a much more in-depth fascinating look at the business of sport and where an oligarch fits in, take a read of this piece by Marty Smiley:

More on that Woodside AGM taking place in Perth today, which as we mentioned has featured tensions with some investors over the company's climate policies.

Chair Richard Goyder has told investors the energy giant is "investing in a high-quality, diverse portfolio to create future value and position us to successfully navigate the energy transition".

"We are determined for Woodside to play a constructive role in the global response to climate change, and are taking meaningful steps to achieve this. 

At the same time, our climate strategy is well suited for current political and market realities, which indicates the energy transition is likely to unfold in a way that is not linear or uniform across the globe."

Mr Goyder said Woodside is making good progress towards the climate targets it set.

Woodside's shares are down 0.9% to $20.07 at 4pm AEST

An interesting analysis from the Commonwealth Bank's new chief economist Luke Yeaman who, until quite recently, used to be a deputy secretary of the Commonwealth Treasury.

He argues, overall, Labor is likely to oversee an improving economy, having weathered the inflation storm it inherited in 2022.

"In many ways, the economic picture leading into this Parliament is more positive than the one Labor inherited in their first term, which was dominated by cost of living pressures, weak household sentiment and the need to keep pressure off inflation," writes Yeaman.

"Economic growth is steadily picking up and we expect this to continue through 2025. Headline and underlying inflation are back in the RBA's target band for the first time since 2014, paving the way for a further 25bp interest rate cut in May. And the labour market continues to outperform expectations, with the unemployment rate tracking at just over 4% — still around historically low levels."

However, he warns it won't all be smooth sailing.

"This term of Government will still present its share of economic challenges. Three stand out above the rest:

* Navigating the global trade war and US China strategic competition;

* Tackling housing affordability and boosting housing supply; and

* Managing the next phase of the net zero transition, particularly the pressures in gas and electricity markets."

He believes some of these forces may push Labor to reconsider some policies that it did not take to the 2025 election, or even ruled out.

"The Government has been clear that they don't intend to make changes to negative gearing or the capital gains tax discount," Yeaman notes.

"If the housing debate intensifies, or there is a need to raise more revenue for budget repair, expect the pressure to grow on the Government to reopen this discussion, especially given their larger majority."

And he does believe the need to raise more revenue will be on the agenda over the next few years, especially with the Albanese government committed to another two rounds of modest tax cuts in July 2026 and July 2027.

"To date, the 2024 25 budget position is tracking ahead of expectations according to the monthly financial statements. As at March, the financial year to date budget deficit was $21.2bn, compared to the expected profile at the time of MYEFO of $34.1bn," Yeaman observes.

"Both expenses and revenue are tracking better than forecast due to a stronger taxation revenue take than expected. Most of this has come through company tax and super tax revenue. On the spending side defence spending is running well below estimates, as is social security but outlays can be lumpy.

"In the medium term, structural pressures on the Budget will continue to build. The era of large revenue upgrades from commodity prices appears behind us and spending pressures remain evident in several areas."

In other words, at some point someone is going to have to undertake some serious, and probably painful, reforms to either taxation or government spending.

The ABC's Peter Martin, the Grattan Institute's CEO Aruna Sathanapally and myself discuss some of these reform options in The Economy, Stupid on Radio National at 5:30pm today, or via the ABC Listen or your favourite podcast app anytime. 

Thanks for the love, Ilia, and sorry you've been having trouble finding us. We will see what we can do about boosting our visibility on the site

Woodside Energy is holding its AGM in Perth, where we've heard 19.45%  of shareholders have opposed the re-election of the Sustainability Committee chair.

Ann Pickard holds the position, which is charged with climate risk oversight.

Super funds HESTA and Aware, as well as Norway’s Storebrand, said they would oppose Ms Pickard’s re-election to the directorship, while US funds CalPERS and CALSTRS also said they would vote against director Ben Wyatt.

Shareholder advocacy group Australasian Centre for Corporate Responsibility has accused the board of Australia's biggest oil and gas producer of not adequately managing climate risk, commenting on the Pickard vote:

"This is the worst vote on record against a Committee Chair for Woodside and the second worst vote ever against a Woodside director. 

"It comes off the back of Woodside receiving the world’s highest vote against a company climate plan – twice."

The energy giant has faced backlash over its climate policies by investors and climate groups alike.

Climate protestors also disrupted today's AGM, heckling chief executive Meg O’Neill and forcing several suspensions.

With Reuters

Thomas Mathews, head of Markets, Asia Pacific at Capital Economics, has sent around a note following the US central bank's decision to leave rates on hold.

In essence, he says he believes investors are expecting too many Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year.

He noted the US central bank struck a very cautious tone in its recent  policy statement, and Chair Powell maintained that approach throughout the subsequent press conference.

Understandable, perhaps, given the uncertainty over the tariffs and the global economy more broadly.

Mr Mathews said Capital Economics' stance is that the Fed will maintain the cautious approach it displayed on Wednesday, and stay put on rates until next year. 

Which he said, could see Treasury yields continue their recent rise.

In a note earlier, economists at Commonwealth Bank have taken a dive into their data and say they expect an uptick in the quarterly rate of wages growth for the first quarter of 2025.

They say this is due to higher wage agreements in recent enterprise agreements and awards.

"We view such an outcome as a wage ‘catch‑up’ and not indicative of a re‑tightening in the labour market. We think unemployment is currently close to its non‑accelerating inflation rate."

"Even as the softening labour market reduces wage pressures, real wages are expected to continue to grow given inflation has returned to the RBA’s 2 3% inflation target band."

While the note's author, Commbank's Stephen Wu noted the RBA was "cautious and uncertain about the outlook for wages growth", he said CBA feels more confident about the outlook for wages growth.

"A modest uptick in quarterly wages growth is likely in Q1 25, based on our internal CBA data and our read of recent negotiated wage outcomes. There are delayed wage agreements with sizable wage increases for a small portion of workers. The impact on WPI should be modest, given weights are based on employers’ wages bill. We expect quarterly WPI rose by 0.8%/qtr in Q1 25, up from 0.7%/qtr in Q4 24."