That wraps it up for today. Wishing you a happy Friday!

Keep abreast of business news over the weekend at ABC's business page.

And catch up on our TV stories on ABC Australia's YouTube page or ABC iview. 

Have a lovely and restful weekend.

Trade deal hopes saw the S&P/ASX 200 index closing up 0.5 per cent at 8231.2 points on Friday after hitting a two-month high of 8242.9.

Markets also lifted off the back of a preliminary US-UK deal and scheduled US-China trade talks this weekend that have created cautious optimism that the world's two largest economies could soon enter a truce.

Macquarie Group reported a 5 per cent lift in full-year net profit of $3.715 billion for the financial year ending March 31, 2025. Its shares closed up 3.8 per cent to $203.31.

US online real estate firm CoStar said it would acquire property classifieds company Domain for an implied enterprise value of $3 billion.

Domain shares were 3 per cent higher at $4.38. 

Domain's 60 per cent owner Nine Entertainment's shares were up more than 6 per cent at $1.58. 

Rival company REA's shares were down 2 per cent to $244.97.

NAB recently announced that it expects to phase out passwords for internet banking within the next five years, replacing the security measure with passkeys and biometric recognition technology.

US giants including Google Amazon, along with Australian financial institutions like PayPal, and government agencies including MyGov and VicRoads, are already allowing customers to use passkeys as a log in method.

Once a passkey is created, customers can log in in the same way as they would to unlock their mobile device, using fingerprint or facial recognition, a PIN, or swipe pattern.

The aim is to better protect customers against impersonation scams and data breaches because passkeys are never shared with other platforms or websites.

NAB says its digital bank, Ubank, which began rolling the technology out to customers in June 2024, has reported 90 per cent of its digitally active customers are logging in using passkeys.

"Passkeys means that customers don't need to enter a one-time passcode (OTP) or remember a password to log into their banking app, making it harder for criminals to access accounts using stolen usernames and passwords," according to Ubank's chief product and growth officer, Andrew Morrison.

The current US baseline tariffs of 10 per cent should be manageable for most countries, including Australia, Rabobank says in a newly-released report.

In the report, Win, lose, or draw: What US tariffs could mean for Australian and New Zealand exports, the bank's RaboResearch division says Australian agricultural trade overall should be able to maintain current trade volumes, and some commodities may even find opportunities to gain share in the US or China.

However, US trade policy "bears watching", as it could change in the near future, Rabobank says.

Here's Rabobank's breakdown of the impact on various Aussie exports:

• Beef: With tariff rates at 10 per cent, Australian beef exports to the US are likely to continue at strong levels. And with Australia sharing common export markets (China, Japan and South Korea) with the United States, any retaliatory action these countries direct to the US may provide opportunities for Australia.
• Sheep meat: Together, Australia and New Zealand supply over 98 per cent of US sheep meat imports. Despite the 10 per cent US import tariffs, these volumes are likely to continue.
• Wine: Over 95 per cent of US wine imports currently face 10 per cent baseline tariffs. From July 9, higher reciprocal tariffs are expected to affect over 80 per cent of imports, mainly from the EU, while imports from Australia, New Zealand, Brazil and Chile will remain at 10 per cent, giving them a relative advantage.
• Canola: The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement allows Canadian canola oil and meal to flow tariff-free into the US, preventing increased competition with Australian canola in the EU and Asia.
• Almonds: High Chinese tariffs have halted imports of almonds from the US, its major supplier. Australia is well positioned to gain market share in China, which is already its largest destination.

AMP's head of investment strategy and chief economist Shane Oliver says "the US/UK trade deal is a bit of a joke" and not a good sign for Australia.

He says the trade deal saw the UK get welcome relief on sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminium and autos, but notes that "a deal with the UK was easy as the US has a goods trade surplus with it".

"Details were lacking indicating it's still a work in progress and the 10 per cent baseline tariff remains in place suggesting it will for other countries too," he said in his week ahead economic note.

"With the UK having to buy more US agricultural and industrial products it's unclear why it signed up to the deal as the UK is still far worse off than prior to 'Liberation Day'."

He says the US/UK deal suggests that the best Australia might hope for is relief on the 25 per cent tariff on steel and aluminium, any possibly future tariff on pharmaceuticals.

"But the 10 per cent tariff will remain, so there is little point Australia giving anything up to the US, like easier biosecurity or social media laws," Mr Oliver said.

He says it is also unclear how much progress will be made in other trade deals, given some are really just going to be agreements to negotiate, "which means the situation could flare up again".

"Negotiations with some countries — for example Japan and Europe — don't appear to be going so smoothly," Mr Oliver notes.

"And so far the US/China talks are not really 'advanced trade talk' according to Treasury Secretary Bessent, although there are reports Trump is targeting lowering the China tariff below 60 per cent as a first step."

Mr Oliver suggests "there is a high risk of Trump throwing another tantrum".

He points out Trump's recent comments about 'take it or leave it' offers on tariffs and that some countries with surpluses are 'going to pay a 25 per cent tariff or a 30 per cent or a 50 per cent'.

"Just as Trump had to back down as investment markets rioted in early April, their calming and the rebound in share markets since may embolden him to go hard on tariffs again."

"Trump has flagged more sectoral tariffs and is now talking about a 100 per cent tariff on foreign-made movies. 

"The latter further muddies the waters as to the logic behind the tariffs as the US has a trade surplus in services and US-made movies dominate globally. 

"It adds to the perception that Trump just spins a roulette-like wheel each day to decide who to threaten next."

China's exports rose 8.1 per cent year-on-year in April, beating economist forecasts, as manufacturers rushed out goods to make the most of US President Donald Trump's 90-day tariff pause.

Exports to Southeast Asia rose 20.8 per cent.

Imports fell 0.2 per cent, leaving a trade surplus of $US96 billion. 

The fate of the world's two largest economies now depends on the outcome of talks over tariffs that are set to happen this weekend between China and the US in Switzerland.

Trump announced sweeping "reciprocal tariffs" of 10 per cent on April 2, before offering a reprieve. But it singled out China for levies of 145 per cent.

An interesting note from expert Cameron Kushner who suggests that if policymakers want to encourage a high rate of population growth and migration, "we need to answer a lot more questions than we currently do, and actually have a plan to link this growth to housing, infrastructure and employment policy".

Before detailing his fascinating economic data, it's worth pointing out that Kushner says he's not against migration: "I am married to a migrant and my father's parents were both migrants. I wouldn't be here and I wouldn't have my family without migration, and Australia has been built on the back of migration.

"But I think as the population increases and governments under-invest in housing, in infrastructure while running world-leading rates of population growth, it is reasonable to ask why we don't have plans in place for population that are linked to the delivery of housing, infrastructure and employment opportunities?" he asks rhetorically. 

Kushner notes that from September 1995 to September 2024, Australia has on average completed one additional property for every one net overseas migrant.

"Over the 12 months to September 24, we've built one new property for every 2.1 net overseas migrants and that was as high as one home for every 3.2 overseas migrants in September 23," he said.

"Ever since, there has been a material lift in population growth and net overseas migration from around 2007, except for a period in 2015 and the period during closed international borders, we have not built at a rate of one additional property for every additional net overseas migrant.

"We went quite close to one for one construction and migration from 2014 and 2019 and subsequently that also coincided with a period of relatively moderate increases in rental costs."

Kushner says because of the rapid ramp-up in overseas migration "and the inelastic nature of the supply response, we have not built anywhere near enough new homes to cater to that population surge".

There are several reasons why supply hasn't been able to respond. One is that over a period, interest rates had increased rapidly, driving up borrowing costs for developers and thinning-out the pool of buyers for new homes. 

"As a result, financing is more expensive and presale requirements are usually more stringent, which in-turn makes fewer new housing projects feasible," Kushner noted.

Another major contributor to the lack of housing supply has been the rapid increase in the cost of housing construction, which rose substantially throughout the pandemic.

"While housing construction costs are just 1.1 per cent higher over the 12 months to March 2025, they are 41.6 per cent higher over the five years to March 2025.

Other residential construction costs are up 3.8 per cent over the past year and up 28 per cent over the past five years. Housing material costs are up 1.1 per cent over the past year and 34.9 per cent higher over the past five years.

"These significant increases in construction costs have made the premium for new housing significant compared to existing homes prices and made much less new housing construction viable," he noted. 

I previously wrote about how Australia's population surge partly led to higher rents and house prices. You can read that here:

Macquarie Group's "well-diversified business" will continue to support the financial services group's credit profile, according to S&P Global Ratings.

In the year to March 31, Macquarie Group's net profit rose 5 per cent to $3.7 billion.

"We expect the consistent growth in the Australian banking business to continue in the current fiscal year for Macquarie Group (BBB+/Stable/A-2)," it said.

The bank's profit results were "driven by ongoing loan and deposit growth in the bank, higher asset management performance fees in the private markets business, and the sale of the helicopter leasing business", it added.

The investment bank has faced controversy under its CEO Shemara Wikramanayake, including previously being mentioned in a German tax scam probe (which the company said at the time was not material) and then this week's news that corporate watchdog, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), is taking action against the company.

But S&P's focus is on the bank's financial position.

It notes assets under management will fall from $941 billion as of March 31, 2025, following the completion of the sale of the North American and European public investments business to Nomura later this year.

But S&P said it does not believe that this will negatively impact the business' returns, as it will allow the group to focus on its private markets business.

"In our view, Macquarie Group's global footprint and diverse businesses mean that a drop in earnings from some businesses or geographies is typically offset by growth in others. In the past year, about two-thirds of the group's income came from outside Australia."

S&P added that the consolidated group's capital surplus of $9.5 billion over the regulatory requirements as of March 31, 2025, provides Macquarie with headroom for its 67 per cent dividend payout, at the top end of its 50-to-70 per cent payout policy.

"It will also sufficiently cover the completion of its previously announced $2 billion on-market share buyback, which is about half complete," S&P said.

It forecast Macquarie Bank's (A+/Stable/A-1) "will remain strongly capitalised and will maintain our risk-adjusted capital ratio soundly above 10 per cent."

As of March 31, 2025, its common equity Tier 1 regulatory ratio was 12.8 per cent.

 From July 1, 2026, all Australian employers will be required to pay superannuation to their employees at the same time they pay their wages.

This change, which was announced by Assistant Treasurer Stephen Jones in the 2023-24 federal budget, will make it clear to workers when super is owed by their boss.

It aims to stamp out the problem of one in four workers missing out on being paid their superannuation for retirement.

But some lobby groups are worried about the policy design and want the start date delayed.

The Tax Institute’s Head of Tax & Legal, Julie Abdalla, says the group supports Labor's policy, but that "we have concerns about some design aspects of the new superannuation guarantee (SG) charge and the operation of the proposed payday super (PDS) regime".

"It is unrealistic to expect everything will be ready by 1 July 2026," she said. 

"The proposed start date of 1 July 2026 is impractical and unreasonable, and should be deferred."

She also said the window of seven calendar days for SG contributions to be allocated to members' superannuation accounts "is unreasonable and should be a longer period".

"Further work is needed to ensure that the proposal operates sensibly and fairly in practice, reduces the administrative burden on employers, and ensures employees understand their rights under the new regime," she said.

Learn more about the problem on unpaid superannuation in this TV story I did for ABC News:

We could finally be seeing some light at the end of the Trump tariffs tunnel.

That's the view of many analysts including VanEck's senior portfolio manager Cameron McCormack, ahead of US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's talks with China officials this weekend.

The US announced overnight that the UK was the first to negotiate a trade deal, prompting the S&P 500 to rally 0.58 per cent.

"The UK has agreed to provide greater access to US goods as part of the deal, however the 10 per cent baseline tariff on UK goods remains in place," Mr McCormack said.

"Notably, the deal includes a pledge for the UK to buy US$10 billion-worth of Boeing planes."

The announcement follows earlier news that trade agreements with India, South Korea and Japan were also in the pipeline.

But McCormack says "the most significant development could occur in a matter of days", with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expected to meet senior Chinese officials in Geneva over the weekend.

"[The US -China meeting] could potentially lead to a faster resolution between the two countries than previously anticipated," he said.

"During the last trade war, it was nearly five months before the US and China heads of state agreed to negotiate, and another year before the Phase One trade deal was finalised.

He says clarity on the US-China trade relationship will be a substantial relief valve for the global economy.

"We are encouraged by China's restraint throughout the tariff war so far, as it indicates they could be in a stronger position to absorb the impact of trade war challenges. The rate cuts announced by China on Wednesday are well-timed strategically.

"By cutting rates — and thus weakening the renminbi — this serves the dual purpose of stimulating domestic spending, which we consider as the main driver of China's economic recovery, and making Chinese exports more affordable for its trading partners."

He says the US hasn't been immune to the impact of its own tariffs, with the US Commerce Department this week reporting a record trade deficit for March, with total imports for the month at an all-time high of US$419 billion.

For more on whether China and the US can resolve their differences, read this great piece by Ian Verrender. His view is that given the two countries entrenched positions, "it seems improbable there will be any kind of resolution in the immediate future".