As we close the ABC Business team blog this evening, we've seen another trading session where money has stayed within the walls of the share market.

Money moved away from the benchmark's biggest stock, CBA and was ushered into the world's biggest miner, BHP Group.

And there was plenty of interest in the new IPO, GemLife.

It's smooth sailing ahead too, with the CBOE's VIX, or volatility index, looking relatively low as Americans wake up for Thursday's trade.

And we're still waiting for Qantas to speak publicly about this week's cyber-attack.

But the best thing about business, economics and the markets...? Tomorrow's another day and anything can happen.

Take care, from the team.

• ASX 200: -0.01% at 8,595 points
• Australian dollar: -0.16% to 65.72 US cents
• Nikkei 225: -0.2% to 39,684 points
• Hang Seng: -0.74% to 24,041 points
• Wall Street: S&P +0.47%, Nasdaq +0.72%, Dow -0.02%
• Europe: Stoxx600 +0.2%, DAX +0.4%
• Spot gold: 0.32% to $US3,360/ounce
• Brent crude: 2.98% to $US69.11/barrel
• Iron ore: $US95.25/tonne
• Bitcoin: -0.82% to $US106,280 

Prices current around 4:30pm AEST.

Live updates on the major ASX indices:

I was surmising, in very short form, some of the other worries Ipek Ozkardeskaya outlined in her note.

Here's the sovereign debt section in full (and, yes, she is worried about US debt too).

"Long-term bond yields across Western markets are flashing early signs of stress," she warns.

"The latest catalyst was a moment of uncertainty in the UK, where Keir Starmer hesitated to confirm whether Chancellor Rachel Reeves would remain in her post — while Reeves was seen wiping away tears behind him in Parliament (it's reportedly for personal reasons).

"But the imagery alone raised alarms about the UK's narrowing fiscal headroom, the need to raise taxes and cut spending, and the credibility of the gilt market.

"As a result, the 10-year gilt yield surged 25 basis points, pushing the US 10-year yield to 4.30%. Japanese long-term yields also reversed recent declines."

Have you ever wondered why you get big stock price movements and the market as a whole barely moves?

It usually occurs when a big stock loss balances out a big stock gain.

It's like see-saw.

That happened today.

The two ASX titans, the CBA and BHP balanced each other out... in index terms.

The CBA was down over 2 per cent, while BHP gained over 5 per cent.

This has happened, "four days down out of five [now]," Marcus Today Senior Portfolio Manager Henry Jennings told this blog.

"EOFY was the key as investors took profits into This year. 

"CBA is so overvalued just needed a catalyst."

Another interesting note from Swissquote Bank analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya.

She says Nike's 4% jump on news of a trade deal between the US and Vietnam — where it manufactures many of its products — may be a little too optimistic, especially given the stock's 45% rally since a low point after the Liberation Day tariffs were announced on April 2.

"Under the agreement, Vietnamese exports to the US will face a 20% tariff, while goods transiting through Vietnam — such as Chinese products — will be taxed at 40%," she notes.

"In other words, goods made in Vietnam will now cost 20% more than they did before, which is 10 percentage points above the 10% universal tariff rate.

"While that's still lower than the 40+% initially floated on Liberation Day, the new tariff structure still marks a significant cost increase, though lifting sentiment at names like Nike, Lululemon and Under Armour."

Ozkardeskaya says there was also a mix of weakening US data and growing UK debt concerns overnight.

"In summary, trade deals are back, but they come with tariffs that could reignite inflation. Economic data is weakening, but not enough to force the Fed's hand. And long-term yields are creeping higher, flashing early signs of market stress," she observes.

"Stocks may be hitting new highs, but under the surface, the pressure is building. This isn't smooth sailing — it's a rally flying straight into headwinds."

As promised ... here's another blog post on the risks facing financial markets — focused entirely on the United States.

First, US company valuations and tariffs.

Are market participants expecting too much from corporate America?

"US equity valuations have risen while earnings growth expectations are trending lower," Swissquote Bank Senior Analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya noted.

"While this may set the bar lower for beats, and the weaker US dollar could boost USD-denominated earnings, markets seem to be overlooking the risk that trade chaos may have caused deeper disruption to supply chains and production lines."

Second, US debt. 

"Trump’s latest tax bill has scraped through the Senate with one vote and now heads to the House," Ozkardeskaya said. 

"It comes with a $3 trillion price tag — set to be financed on the backs of the bottom 20% losing benefits like Medicaid."

So how much risk is too much risk for the share market?

"The more risks we sweep under the rug — and the wider the gap between valuations and fair value — the greater the size of a potential correction."

Note "potential" correction.

Remember the week beginning April 7?

The preceding Friday was a little dodgy for equity markets too, but the following week presented extraordinary volatility on global financial markets.

In that week the Australian share market hit a low, down 14 per cent from the peak achieved in February.

But the bond markets plummeted too, sending yields soaring.

Recently, even today, there's been a curious calm descend across most markets, excluding oil of course.

Take the CBOE Market Volatility Index, for example. Anything above 20 is considered worth looking at.

At 3pm, AEST, it's 16.64, down 1.13 per cent.

It coincides with share markets flirting with all-time highs.

There are plenty of risks facing global financial markets -- and that's for another blog post -- but for right now, the markets appear to be assuming all with be right.

The Australian share market is trading flat overall as it heads towards the last hour.

The ASX 200 is down just 0.1% to 8,586 points, with falls for financial stocks outweighing stronger gains for mining stocks.

BHP was one of the biggest gains on the market, up 4.5% to $38.88, while Rio Tinto was up a more modest 0.8%.

CBA has continued recent declines from its record high, falling 1.6% to $180.69.

ANZ bucked the downward trend for the big banks, rising 0.3%.

The Australian dollar is 0.2% lower at 65.67 US cents.

Eileen Bond, the ex-wife of disgraced West Australian businessman Alan Bond, has died.

Ms Bond's family has confirmed to the ABC the 87-year-old died peacefully on Wednesday night surrounded by family after suffering a severe stroke on Sunday.

Alan and Eileen Bond married in 1955 when they were both 17, and had four children together, before divorcing in 1992.

After a period as one of Australia's most flamboyant entrepreneurs in the boom times of the 80s, Bond left a trail of financial losses for investors, that ended with his bankruptcy and a jail term.

He died in 2015 after undergoing heart surgery.

You can read more in this story from my WA colleagues.

Earlier this morning, the minister for defence industry, Pat Conroy, announced that the Albanese government had purchased $2.12 billion in advanced medium-range missiles.

He said the extra missiles would strengthen the Australian Defence Force's air defence and aerial strike capability.

The government has bought the missiles through the United States government’s Foreign Military Sales program.

The missiles are developed by American defence company Raytheon Technologies (now known as RTX Corporation).

"These AIM-120D-3 and AIM-120C-8 missiles can precisely strike targets at extended range, providing a significant deterrence to potential adversaries," Mr Conroy's statement said.

Enhancing the ADF’s strike capability is a key priority of the 2024 National Defence Strategy.

The AIM-120D-3 variant is a supersonic air-launched tactical missile, used on the F/A-18F Super Hornet and EA-18G Growler aircraft as well as the F-35A Lightning II aircraft. 

It is designed to counter threats at extended ranges.

The AIM-120C-8 variant is launched using the National Advanced Surface to Air Missile System, and is being brought into service by the army’s new 10th Brigade and will significantly boost ground-to-air capability against aerial targets.

Some more detail from Reuters:

Seeking to respond to China's build-up of its military, [Prime Minister] Albanese pledged $74 billion last year to buy missiles from Europe and the US, including $21 billion to establish a Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordnance Enterprise in Australia.

The sale of 400 missiles to Australia through the US foreign military sales program was notified to the US Congress in April. A further $2 billion proposed sale of US electronic warfare systems and equipment for Australia's F/A-18 Super Hornet and EA-18 Growler fighter jets was notified in June.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the US remains the world's largest arms exporter any way you look at it.

It accounted for 43% of the global share of exports of major arms across 2020-24, followed by France at 9.5% and Russia at 7.8%.