Analysis: Behind the push to recognise Palestinian statehood lie questions about what it would look like
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has been gradually ramping up his criticisms of Israel — and condemnation of the Netanyahu government's actions in Gaza — in the last couple of weeks.
This morning, by jointly signing a statement with other countries ahead of the UN General Assembly in September, his government has shifted ground also on the question of recognition of the State of Palestine. Once again, Australia has opted to move as part of a group of nations in its public position on Gaza, rather than acting unilaterally.
At his press conference just now, he has resisted attempts to put a timeline on when Australia might follow France and the UK — as well as around 140 other countries — in moving to recognise Palestine, insisting it is not about a timeline but about the circumstances 'where recognition will advance the objective of a two state solution'.
The significance of the statement by the foreign ministers of Andorra, Australia, Canada, Finland, France, Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, San Marino, Slovenia and Spain lies in its context.
France became the first major country to signal it would recognise Palestine at the UN General Assembly, followed by the UK's apparently conditional statement that it would also do this.
UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has tried to make the pressure on Israel implicit in the move more explicit by suggesting that the UK might not proceed if Israel was to meet various conditions — including agreeing to a ceasefire and taking "substantive steps to end the appalling situation in Gaza".
But given Israeli intransigence, the UK must have made this statement on the presumption that the likelihood of Israel meeting all the conditions is pretty low.
Against this backdrop, the statement by other nations, including Australia, reiterating their "unwavering commitment to the vision of the two-state solution", specifically ahead of the UNGA, is fairly pointed.
The 15 foreign ministers say their countries have "already recognized, have expressed or express the willingness or the positive consideration of our countries to recognize the State of Palestine, as an essential step towards the two-State solution, and invite all countries that have not done so to join this call".
In other words, they aren't yet declaring they will back a push for Palestinian statehood. But Israel has been put on notice at a time when two major countries have signalled their intent that others may join them. And in making the statement, they are implicitly backing the actions of France and the UK.
Significantly, the PM emphasised a couple of times at his press conference the reference in the statement to "the commitments made by the President of the Palestinian Authority on June 10th".
These commitments by Mahmoud Abbas condemned the October 7 terrorist attacks, and notably called for the liberation of hostages and disarmament of Hamas. It also called for "elections within a year to trigger generational renewal and accepts the principle of a demilitarized Palestinian State".
Resisting the renewed push for Palestinian statehood can be rationalised because the question of who would run Palestine is a live one: Hamas as a terrorist organisation is not an option that any Western nation is prepared to accept; but the Palestinian Authority also faces problems of both external and internal legitimacy.
But both the aggressive push to annex large areas of the West Bank and now Gaza, and the utter physical devastation of the Gaza Strip, also raise the question of what will be left to form the basis of any future Palestinian state if the world cannot force the issue soon.