The ASX has closed just marginally lower on Thursday, off less than 0.2%.  All up this week so far, it's up around 0.3%.

The bottom stocks today included oil and gas companies and miners, including Mineral Resources and Beach Energy. Analysts and investors also took a negative view on Flight Centre's latest update, which saw it lower its profit guidance.

Retail trade figures out today only slightened dampened predictions of a rate cut from the RBA in less than 2 weeks time, which even the most hawkish of economists are predicting after yesterday's inflation figures.

Yet this relatively benign markets week could get a little bit more interesting tomorrow. It's US President Donald Trump's deadline day for tariffs, and as we have already learned in 2025, anything could be announced or happen.

Unlike the UK, Japan, Vietnam and other markets, Australia is yet to strike a deal on tariffs ahead of the August 1 deadline. Our treasurer was out today saying its assumed  Australia's 10% tariff will stay. 

"Our assumption and our understanding is that we've got the 10%, which is the lowest in the world," Jim Chalmers told reporters at a doorstop interview.

"Obviously, we're aware of comments that have been made about that by President Trump, as well as comments made about tariffs on India and other developments this week."

Anything could happen though. We'll be here with you on this specialist business and finance blog from the earlier time of just before 6am AEST time. See you then!

You might remember this news from earlier this year, that Australian shoe chain Wittner had collapsed into voluntary administration. 

Its collapse followed the closure of Jeanswest stores and chains under company Mosaic, including Katies, Rivers and Noni B, all highlighting tough times for Aussie retail.

Now Deloitte says its saved Wittner after selling it through a deed of company arrangement (DOCA) to The Shoe Group.

“We are pleased that this much-loved heritage brand has found a new home in TSG," Deloitte says.

"The success of the sale, which occurred in the context of a challenging retail environment, will allow for the continuation the majority of the Wittner business including retail stores and concessions, as well as the retention of over 170 employees.”

Wittner has 20 standalone stores nationally, and 25 stores sitting inside the floors of department stores Myer and David Jones.

Deloitte says this has been a "positive" outcome for Wittner's staff, landlords and creditors. Are you a creditor? Get in touch via terzon.emilia@abc.net.au

Rabobank senior market strategist Benjamin Picton, who happens to be based in Sydney, has spent a fair part of the bank's Global Daily note talking about his homeland:

"A potential loser in all of this is Australia," he warns.

"With the US sending more wheat to Indonesia and Bangladesh and more LNG to Japan and South Korea, Australian exports stand to be displaced from their traditional markets.

"Concurrently, Canberra seems to have given one up for free by rolling back biosecurity restrictions on US beef imports without securing any kind of commitment from the USA on tariff rates or market access for Australian steel, aluminium and pharmaceutical exports.

"Aussie CPI printed below market expectations yesterday after the RBA — having perhaps not read the play — inexplicably kept the cash rate unchanged in July despite the market being fully priced for a cut.

"While the central bank dithers in featherbedding the economy against trade shocks, Australian politicians (who are also perhaps struggling to read the play) will be crossing their fingers and toes that the tariff rate remains at the 10% baseline announced back in April, and that Donald Trump doesn't make good on hints earlier this week to increase baseline to 15-20% for the also-rans who failed to secure a deal."

The ABS released figures today showing retail spending was up in Australia last month, led by people shopping at EOFY sales and even buying up a new Nintendo console.  

This strong spending data comes a day after inflation data was also released by the ABS. Many economists (even hawkish ones) took that latest inflation data as soft enough to warrant another cut by the RBA next month.

Now that retail data has some questioning the certainty.

This from market analyst Tony Sycamore:

Setting the platform for today’s rebound, the release of robust activity data for June, which has admittedly resulted in the probability of an August RBA rate cut easing marginally.

Retail sales surged by 1.2% MoM in June, driven by discounting pushing the annual rate to 4.9%, the highest growth rate seen since March 2023. 

The better retails sales data supported the ASX200 Consumer Discretionary sector to its highest level in five months. Its gains were led by Aristocrat Leisure which added 2.65% to $70.24, Temple and Webster added 1.7% to $24.25, Nick Scali lifted 0.92% to $19.28, and Harvey Norman climbed 0.87% to $5.79. 

The RBA meets on August 11 and will deliver its verdict on August 12.

You might recall the threats about copper tariffs that US President Donald Trump made last month. The prospect of a 50% tariff was pushing up copper prices.

Now Trump appears to be winding back some of the threats, saying on Wednesday (US time) that the 50% will be imposed but only singling out copper pipes and wiring.

Here's more on the market reaction from Reuters:

The surprise move dragged down US copper prices more than 17% on the Comex exchange  and unwound a premium over the London global benchmark that had grown in recent weeks, with shipments diverted there in anticipation of higher domestic prices.

"Markets are now busily repricing refined copper much lower after Trump's epic backflip on his own import tariff policy," said Tom Price, an analyst at the London brokerage Panmure Liberum.

"Someone must have finally got through to [Trump] that the US economy simply can't afford this new trade hit."

Trump first teased the tariff in early July, implying that it would apply to all types of the red metal, ranging from cathodes produced by mines and smelters to wiring and other finished products.

Yet in a proclamation released by the White House, the administration said the tariff would apply, starting this Friday, only to pipes, tubes and other semi-finished copper products, as well as products that copper is heavily used to manufacture, including cable and electrical components.

The move is essentially a boost for Chile and Peru, two of the world's largest copper miners and major suppliers to the United States.

Here's some Trump news you might have missed today.

The US President has suspended the so-called “de minimis” exemption that allowed packages worth less than $US800 to get into the United States without tariffs.

The exemption has already been axed on shipments going into the US from China, impacting massive online retailers like Shein and Temu.  

Now the rest of the world's shipments won't get the free pass from July 1 either. They will now get one of two types of tariffs, depending on their origin.

ABC News has reached out to several Australian brands that ship into the US. The owner of one swimwear company, Bond Eye, told us it "knew this was coming" and the company has already moved its online shipping logistics to inside the US. 

If you're still confused by this tax exemption that's now ended for all brands going into the US, I can recommend this piece by our colleague Kate Ainsworth from earlier this year.

Here's some of Kate's explanation:

It operates the same as a duty-free allowance, but it has a more complex-sounding name: the de minimis exemption.

The loophole had been publicly questioned long before Mr Trump's inauguration, with the Biden administration announcing last September that it was looking to take action against the volume of de minimis shipments arriving in the country.

At the time, the Biden administration said the actions were about addressing the "significant increased abuse of the de minimis exemption", with a focus on Chinese-founded e-commerce platforms, such as Shein and Temu.

Data released by the US Customs and Border Protection Agency last November illustrated how big of a problem de minimis shipments had become in the country.

In 2024, the agency estimated it processed more than 4 million de minimis shipments into the US on a daily basis — more than double the volume it had processed in 2021 — with Shein and Temu accounting for more than 30 per cent of the total packages.

The Housing Industry Association has welcomed the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics figures showing a jump in dwelling approvals, not only last month but over the 2024-25 financial year.

"New home building approvals in the 2024-25 financial year were up by 13.9 per cent compared to their 2023-24 trough," notes HIA senior economist Tom Devitt.

"Detached house approvals increased by 6.1 per cent in the financial year, while multi-unit approvals were up by 27.9 per cent.

"Strong population growth, tight labour markets and recovering household incomes helped improve confidence in an increasing number of markets over the last 18 months, led by Western Australia, Queensland and South Australia."

While he expects the positive trend to continue with another increase in 2025-26, Mr Devitt fears it will still fall short of the number of homes the federal government is targeting to address a shortfall in supply relative to population growth.

"Interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank in February and May this year, with the expectation of more to come, will help bring more potential homebuyers back to the market in the lagging — and often more expensive — states and territories," the economist forecasts.

"The challenge will be turning this modest improvement in conditions into the kind of recovery that will meet the Australian government target of 1.2 million homes over five years.

"In the 2024-25 financial year, the first year of the government's five-year target, Australia approved just 187,330 new homes. Given that some approved projects don't ever commence construction, the goal of commencing 240,000 homes per year remains a distant goal.

"Even with lower interest rates, Australia is set to start just 200,000 homes per year, on average, over the next four years."

Despite US President Donald Trump hinting that the so-called "baseline" tariff applied to all countries will rise from the 10% announced on April 2 to 15-20%, Australia's Treasurer Jim Chalmers is still working on the assumption this won't happen.

"Our assumption and our understanding is that we've got the 10%, which is the lowest in the world," he told reporters at a doorstop interview.

"Obviously, we're aware of comments that have been made about that by President Trump, as well as comments made about tariffs on India and other developments this week. 

"We'll continue to work with the Americans to engage with them in our usual methodical, considered way to speak up for and stand up for Australian industries and Australian workers. That's been our approach all along and that will continue to be our approach."

We won't have to wait too long to find out, with the US President expected to hold a press conference about 6am AEST tomorrow to announce tariff rates going forward.

That's none too early — the temporary suspension of the April 2 "Liberation Day" tariffs ends at 2:01pm AEST tomorrow, and new executive orders must be signed before then, otherwise the tariff rates announced on that day will take effect again.

China's economy has been in need of a new growth driver for years.

The long-term plan has been to shift away from property and construction and into a consumer-led growth model.

But, like any other country, manufacturing remains the economic backbone of the world's second-largest economy.

China's manufacturing activity shrank for a fourth straight month in July, an official survey showed.

It points to weaker domestic demand and export growth.

James Wilson from Jamieson Coote Bonds described it as a "sluggish start" to third-quarter economic growth.

"Chinese factory activity hit a three-month low in signs of weaker exports and also domestic demand."

"It's a sluggish start to the third quarter

"It's a little bit of a worry going forward as the economy has broadly held up OK in the face of tariffs, however, this may have been helped along by front-loading from exporters," he said.

BHP Group was down over 2 per cent and Rio Tinto had lost 3 per cent at 2pm AEST.

The market price of one of Australia's biggest exports is falling, as fears of falling demand in China continue.

This in from Reuters:

Iron ore futures prices declined for a second straight session on Thursday, as weaker-than-expected July factory activity data in top consumer China raised demand concerns.

The most-traded September iron ore contract on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) DCIOcv1 traded 1.44% lower at 786.5 yuan a metric ton, as of 0230 GMT.

The benchmark September iron ore SZZFU5 on the Singapore Exchange was 0.75% lower at $100.95 a ton, as of 0220 GMT.

China's manufacturing activity shrank for a fourth straight month in July, an official survey showed Thursday, suggesting a surge in exports ahead of higher U.S. tariffs has started to fade while domestic demand remained sluggish.

Prices of the key steelmaking ingredient softened on Wednesday after hopes faded that Beijing would unveil more stimulus measures at its July Politburo meeting that set the economic course for the remainder of the year.