It's been real

Can I just say, thanks for joining me this afternoon on the biz blog.

It's always a highlight of the week for me.

Let's see what happens tonight on Wall Street.

I can't help but think traders might look twice at the Bank of Japan's statement. It was a little on the hawkish side and many equity markets are still priced for perfection.

Anywhoooo, please enjoy your weekend and take care.

Until next time...

IG acquires Independent Reserve

IG Group Holdings has announced it is buying Independent Reserve.

Independent Reserve is a cryptocurrency exchange based in Australia.

The deal has been valued at of $178 million (£86.8m). 

"The bolt-on transaction accelerates IG’s entry into cryptocurrency markets in the Asia Pacific region and brings a talented team of crypto-native specialists to the Group," IG said in a statement.

"This acquisition marks an important step in IG’s crypto strategy in a key region," Managing Director of Asia Pacific & Middle East at IG, Matt Macklin.

Big week ahead for economic events and data

There's quite a lot of news heading our way next week.

  • RBA governor Michele Bullock fronts a House of Reps Committee on Monday.
  • We have the Monthly CPI Indicator for August on Wednesday.
  • We also have August Job Vacancies on Thursday.
  • Overseas, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks early Wednesday morning (AEST).
  • And early on Friday morning (AEST) we'll find out how much the US economy grew in the June quarter with the release of US GDP.
  • Finally, next Saturday morning (AEST) the US Core PCI price index will be published. Economists expect the annual growth rate to remain steady at 2.9 per cent.
Market snapshot
  • ASX 200: +0.3% to 8,773 points
  • Australian dollar: -0.2% to 65.94 US cents
  • S&P 500: +0.5% to 6,632 points
  • Nasdaq: +0.9% to 22,471 points
  • FTSE: +0.2% to 9,228 points
  • Eurostoxx: +0.8% to 555 points
  • Spot gold: +0.1% to $US3,647/ounce
  • Brent crude: -0.2% to $US67.28/barrel
  • Iron ore: +0.0% to $US105.24/tonne
  • Bitcoin: -0.2% to $US116,879

Prices current around 4:30pm AEST.

Live updates on the major ASX indices:

Bank of Japan board split for first time in months

It's worth noting that of the nine voting members of the Bank of Japan, the 2 of the more hawkish members (who prefer less stimulus) include the central bank's Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino.

The last several BOJ rate decisions have actually been unanimous.

Today's 7-2 split decision showed the board's debate between doves (who favour continuing to hold rates) and hawks (who want to hike them to curb inflation).

Governor Kazuo Ueda has also become one of the more cautious members of the BOJ's nine-member board in recent months on speeding up hikes.

None of this is lost on the market.

The yield on Japan's 10-Year Government bond has risen 4 basis points, or 0.04 percentage points, to over 1.6 per cent in the space of a couple of hours.

What's the story with the bond market?

Thanks for the post, Charles.

Watching the Japanese 10-Year note this afternoon I wonder just how nervous bond traders really are.

But the demand in US Treasuries is telling me the money markets see a weaker US economy, lower US dollar, and falling interest rates.

So there's some fundamental price action going on here, as opposed to big dramatic, emotionally charged swings in the market.

The TACO, acronym, for example, seems to have disappeared.

And as long as China continues negotiations with the US on tariffs, there's little for the market to respond to.

I'm not taking my eyes off the bond market though!

Bank of Japan's 'hawkish' tone: AMP

AMP economists see the Bank of Japan's monetary policy statement as slightly hawkish —meaning the bank's more likely than not to raise interest rates again in the months ahead.

"The Bank of Japan also left rates on hold at 0.5%, but its bias is to continue raising rates with two board members voting to raise rates," AMP's chief economist Shane Oliver said. 

It also announced it will start selling ETFs which is a form of quantitative tightening.  

That is, the BoJ is withdrawing money from the economy.

The good doctor on the week that was

AMP's chief economist, Dr Shane Oliver, writes a weekly note, and it's just dropped into journalists' inboxes across the country.

Here's a few dot points from the note:

  • Global shares mostly rose over the last week as the Federal Reserve resumed cutting interest rates
  • US, European and Japanese shares all rose but Chinese shares fell slightly. 
  • Despite a bounce on Friday, the Australian share market fell for the third week in a row with about a 0.7% decline as the market continued to correct after the record highs reached last month, with the fall led by energy, consumer stable, health and telco shares. 
  • Ten-year bond yields rose slightly. 
  • Gold prices made another record high but only rose modestly as the Fed rate cut was largely factored in. 
  • Metal prices fell, but oil and iron prices rose. 
  • The $A fell back slightly but remained above $US0.66 with the $US down slightly. 
Closely watched Japanese bond yields rise

Keep your eye on the Japanese bond market.

Remember Japan has been a lousy place to seek fixed income investment returns in decades past.

If interest rates rise, Japan may become a magnet for offshore funds, including those in the US.

That flow of funds — between Japan and the US — remains crucial for global financial stability.

Following the Bank of Japan's interest rate announcement, the benchmark share index, the Nikkei, flipped to losses on Friday and, the yen firmed after the decision.

Japanese government bond futures sank, while the yield on 10-year sovereign debt jumped to a nearly 17-year peak.

The 10-year JGB yield added four basis points to 1.635 per cent, just short of this month's high of 1.64 per cent, a level not seen since July 2008.

Bank of Japan points to slowing economy

The BOJ board's decision statement said the economy is recovering "moderately".

However, with global growth likely to be hit by trade frictions, Japan's economic growth was likely to slow before it re-accelerated.

The central bank said private consumption has been resilient and capital expenditure is on a moderate increasing trend, but the trend for exports and output remains relatively flat.

It said inflation expectations have risen moderately, although the expected slowdown in growth could see underlying inflation stagnate for a period.

Reporting from Reuters