That's it for another day on the blog, thanks for your company.

Looking ahead, Wall Street futures are pointing to a marginally softer start to the week after the record close on Friday.

Speaking of records, gold has just sailed through $US3,700/ounce and still going.

If you're still in need of a finance fix this evening you can tune in to The Business with Kirsten Aiken on ABC News at 8:45pm (AEST) or after the Late News on ABC-TV, otherwise "Downtown" Dan Ziffer will be up bright early with all the news from overnight, plus some excellent gifs.

Until next time ...

Having bounced out of the blocks gaining as much as 0.8% in the opening minutes of trade, the ASX 200 settled back to a more muted advance.

The ASX 200 closed 0.4% higher at 8,811 points, with 96 stocks making gains, 86 underwater and 10 going nowhere.

Miners in the materials sector led the gains, while energy stocks (Woodside -1.0%, Whitehaven Coal -2.5%) and real estate (GPT -0.9%, Goodman -0.8%) were drags today.

The very small education services sector, which may as well be called the IDP sector, gained 5.2% (IDP +4.8%).

The big miners were supported by a solid gain in iron ore prices on Friday with Fortescue up 3.2%.

Within the miners, gold producers had another strong day as spot gold pushed higher towards another record high at $US3,700/ounce.

Uranium miners were also in demand.

At the other end of the ASX barbell, banks had a poor day with the exception of Westpac (flat) and Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (+0.3%).

Plumbing supplier Reece (+14.2%) had a much better day after announcing a $250 million share buyback, having been badly beaten down on results last month.

The rest to the ASX 200 top mover list was largely dominated by gold miners.

Among the ASX 200 bottom movers, petrol retailer and refiner Viva fell 8.1% after the surprise resignation of the head of its convenience store business, while coal miner New Hope shed 6.7% in the general energy sell-off.

Outrage is growing over last week's massive fail by Optus that has seen its triple-zero outage linked to several deaths.

The federal government insists Optus will be held accountable. But how far could that accountability extend?

Aaron Guilfoyle - the lawyer that led the successful prosecution against workplace health and safety breaches at Ardent Leisure after the Dreamworld deaths in 2016 - will join the program.

***

Also ... artificial intelligence is here. You're using it, and chances are in ways you don't even realise. 

This week, reporters from the ABC's business team will bring you a special series of reports looking at artificial intelligence and how it is being used in Australia. 

Emilia Terzon kicks off the series tonight - you don't want to miss it.

***

And why are some of Australia's big institutional investors and fund managers lobbying companies on the ASX to change their constitutions? 

Allan Gray's managing director, Simon Mawhinney, will explain all. 

(Hints: James Hardie and Azek/ Perpetual Limited and Pendal Group.)

***

Want to know more? Watch!

I'll see you at 8.44pm on ABC News, or after the late news on ABC TV, or if you're really really keen - look for us on ABC iView from about 7.30pm.

• ASX 200: +0.4% to 8,811 points (live values below)
• Australian dollar: flat at 65.93 US cents
• Asia: Nikkei +1.1%, Hang Seng -0.9%, Shanghai +0.4%
• Wall Street (Friday): S&P500 +0.5%, Dow +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.7%
• Europe (Friday): Dax -0.2%, FTSE -0.1%, Eurostoxx flat
• Spot gold: +0.4% to $US3,700/ounce
• Brent crude: +0.7% to $US67.19/barrel
• Iron ore (Friday): +1.1% to $US106.50/tonne
• Bitcoin: -0.9% at $US114,436

Prices current around 4:15pm AEST

Live updates on the major ASX indices:

If you need your daily afternoon reality check, Rabobank's senior market strategist Benjamin Picton delivers again.

"There is an old joke in economics that if you put your feet in the oven and your head in the freezer you are, on average, at a pleasant temperature," he writes.

"More and more we see this dynamic in financial markets where — like deer in the headlights — wildly binary outcomes are dealt with by taking probability weighted averages of potential future states of the world. This produces prices that represent the least likely of all scenarios: a pleasant middle ground between polar extremes.

"We see this effect everywhere. Changes in trade, geopolitics, capital markets, climate and demographics mean that inflation might be very high in the future — or very low. So let's take the average and assume that inflation averages 2%. 

"Likewise, policy rates may need to be very low to finance new investment in energy, AI, semiconductor manufacturing, military hardware, housing and infrastructure — or very high to keep inflation in check. Or maybe inflation targeting as a concept is past its sell-by date, and everything we know about how monetary policy is supposed to work is about to change as politically-favoured sectors get low rates while others get high?"

Picton points to increasing geopolitical, immigration policy and trade tensions as potential flashpoints with some potentially extreme outcomes.

One example he gives is Nigel Farage's far-right Reform party leading UK polls and possibly moving into a position to form government in the future, something the New Yorker recently reported on.

"Needless to say, these are not business as usual moves. How to account for the rising probability of these events — or even more extreme events — occurring?" Picton asks rhetorically.

"Imagination is required to conceive of how the world might look in the future, because if the last 15 years have taught us anything it's that the past is a foreign country. 

"The assumption of mean reversion is not a favoured strategy."

Just to follow up on Michael's post earlier on the RBA's view that Australia's economy now looks like it's in a "cyclical upturn", with economic activity and income per person now growing again.

UBS has just published a research note that goes some way to supporting that view.

The investment bank's quarterly Evidence Lab survey found consumer spending is surging and intentions to buy are now at their highest level in the six years the survey has been running.

UBS strategist Richard Schellbach said the record high score on the survey was driven by the "mortgage belt" charging back to the shops, as well as "fun" categories being back in favour.

RBA assistant governor and chief economist Sarah Hunter earlier told a House of Representatives Economics Committee hearing that a combination of rising real wages, falling inflation and the stage three tax cuts were having positive household wealth effects which has supported consumer spending.

Mr Schellback said this quarter's survey on forward spending intentions was disproportionately driven by a revival in sentiments from the middle-income households.

"This group who represent 'the mortgage belt', tell us they are the most positive they have been on their income growth since 2021, which is allowing them to save at the same time," he said.

"With concerns around extreme 'cost of living' headwinds again receding, and a solid jobs market, respondents indicated that the return of real wage growth is providing them with room to up their discretionary spending."

At the same time, the survey found non-discretionary spending on "costs of living" categories are no longer showing the upwards momentum they had a year ago.

"Instead, the 'fun' categories are making a comeback, led by spending intentions towards clothing and footwear, entertainment, food takeaway and eating out," Mr Schellbach said.

A little while ago, I gave you my humble analysis on where the RBA might be sitting with regards to future cash rate moves.

Here's one from one of the full-time rate watchers, George Tharenou from investment bank UBS.

"UBS still expect the RBA to cut the cash rate in Nov-25 by a final -25bps, to a terminal trough of 3.35%.

"Thereafter, we still see some risk of an 'extra' -25bps rate cut, with the most likely timing in Feb-26. 

"However, we continue to argue the risk of additional RBA easing has reduced, given the 'trifecta' of the recent resilience of domestic data. This data has included: 1) the rebound of the monthly CPI indicator; 2) rebound of GDP growth (& more recent activity data); and 3) the labour market is easing, but remains a bit tight. 

"That said, a downside risk to our RBA cash rate outlook remains if the labour market continues to ease (albeit reflecting lags of the prior weakness in GDP growth); or if US payrolls continue to weaken, and this causes the Fed cut rates aggressively."

So George is in the one more cut and maybe two camp, while the consensus is probably the two more with the risk of just one group, while those tipping three rates cuts are now probably in the minority.

Just a quick look at a few "off Broadway" stocks making big moves up and down today.

• Biotech Starphama has jumped 65% after announcing a collaboration and license agreement with Genentech, a subsidiary of the pharma giant Roche, to develop potential cancer therapies.
• Small cap tech stock Vection Technologies is up 32% after signing a $22.3M AI defence framework (its largest deal so far) with a NATO-approved customer and partner in Europe.
• The aged care operator Regis Healthcare has plunged 26% after it said the Federal Government's 4.7% base price increase fell short of expectations and will create a "funding gap in operations."

The tension in the rising iron ore price is palpable.

Last week China's state run iron ore trader, China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) ordered a temporary boycott on a popular line of BHP ore, Jinblebar fines (a 60% iron ore product).

If the idea was to beat the sellers into submission, it failed.

Spot prices in China popped another 1% on Friday, back above $US106/tonne.

That in turn has seen the share prices of Fortescue and Rio Tinto jump 2-to-3% today while BHP is up a more modest 0.6%.

The instruction to steel mills to stop buying the BHP product came after talks between CMRG and major iron ore miners on long term iron contracts broke down.

As CBA's veteran commodities analyst Vivek Dhar points out CMRG was established three years ago to shift pricing power from the iron ore miners to China's steel mills and reduce price volatility via long-term contracts.

So far, CMRG has not had a great deal of success despite China accounting for almost three quarters of the world's iron ore imports and now has the ability to unite the fragmented steel mills with one voice.

"If the point of tension between CMRG and iron ore miners is the current state of the market, both parties have credible arguments to make," Mr Dhar said.

"CMRG can argue that the rise in iron ore prices alongside falling steel mill margins is unusual."

"Conversely, the iron ore miners can argue that current iron ore prices reflect the cost structure of iron ore production following the fatal Brumadinho dam collapse in January 2019 in Brazil that saw some Brazilian supply exit the market."

However, Friday's jump in prices doesn't necessarily mean China has been thwarted and the miners have beaten back the central planners once again.

"While China's objective will be to secure lower iron ore prices, the rise in prices on Friday indicates that China may be willing to tolerate higher iron ore prices if it means that iron ore miners are more compliant with CMRG demands," Mr Dhar said.

In the meantime, ANZ's commodities team points out rising steel prices and tightening port inventories should provide support for iron ore.

Last week, the total inventory of iron ore held at 35 major ports fell by more than 130 million tonnes.

ANZ's senior commodities analyst Daniel Hynes says home sales and house prices in China are rising, which is promising, but new construction activity needs to lift to support iron ore prices.

"Non-property sectors now make up more than 72% of China's total steel demand, and recent data suggest demand growth is accelerating," Mr Hynes said.

"We forecast non-property steel demand to rise nearly 2% this year."

Mr Hynes says China's steel industry should be relatively immune to ongoing trade tensions with the US, with trade to other markets, such as Europe and Asia, picking up the slack.

"Moreover, a pullback in steel output in recent months has improved profitability in the sector.

"This has provided some breathing space for steel making raw material prices to push higher. This will be exacerbated by expectations that policymakers will apply meaningful cuts to capacity in coming months."

Hi Sam, good question, and if I was 100% certain of the answer, I'd probably be trading interest rate futures for a living, not writing about them!

I didn't hear anything in the testimony that greatly changed my view of where the RBA is at, which is that, with inflation close to the middle of the target and expected to stay there, there's probably room for a couple more rate cuts.

But you'll probably need to wait a while for the next one, which is most likely to come in early November, not at the RBA meeting next week.

This is also what the people who do trade interest rate futures for a living think.

The market pricing for a rate cut at the September 29-30 meeting is just 16%.

However, that jumps to around 60% for a rate cut by November 4.

Overall, the market betting centres on a cash rate trough of 3.1% (down from 3.6% now), with roughly similar bets on a low point of 2.85 or 3.35%.

The market currently sees a less than 9% chance that the RBA is already done cutting rates.