Goodbye

That's it for another day on the blog, thanks for your company.

It was a big day too, with ASX performing above expectations jumping almost 1%, while gold continued to march higher, passing through $US3,800 on the way.

Chinese and Hong Kong markets also rallied strongly on news that further fiscal stimulus was on the way, and the Chinese central bank was also easing restrictions on foreign investment in its bond market.

Wall Street looks like taking another step higher overnight with S&P 500 futures up 0.4%.

Tomorrow's big-ticket item is the RBA rates decision due at 2:30pm AEST - but don't lose too much sleep on it, markets are pricing in roughly a zero probability of a cut.

"Downtown" Dan Ziffer will be back with you tomorrow morning to make sure you start well briefed and continue to be so as the day unfolds,

Until next time ...

ASX surges 0.9%, supported by banks, gold miners and defence stocks

The ASX 200 powered out of the blocks today, buoyed by Wall Street ending its three-day losing streak on Friday.

At the close, the index was up 0.9% to 8,863 points, while the broader All Ordinaries gained 0.8% to 9,148 points.

All sectors had made gains except for energy, which was down despite a spike in oil prices on Friday, the tiny education sector and technology, which slipped only marginally.

Healthcare was up, supported by CSL (+3.0%), which has rebounded from Friday's fears about the impact of new US tariffs on pharmaceuticals.

The banks were all been bid up with CBA gaining 2.2%, while insurers such as IAG (+1.7%) also found favour.

Miners reversed on softer commodity prices and iron ore tumbling more than 2% in China on Friday with BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue all down around 1-to-2%.

South32 the exception, but only because it didn't lose ground.

The energy sector was weighed down by uranium miners (Paladin -2.4%) and coal producers (Whitehaven -3.4%), while Woodside gained 0.4% thanks to higher oil prices.

Gold miners rose on the back of spot prices punching though $3,800/ounce to yet another record high.

The ASX 200 top movers list had a very defence/war leaning, led by tech darling DroneShield (+18.0%), which is still gaining on its US expansion plans.

Ship builder and frigate maker Austal (+4.6%) was also in demand, as was ASX listed, West Tennessee based titanium miner IperionX (+3.4%) which just received another slab of funding from the US Department of War to keep digging.

The mineral sands miner and rare earths wannabe Iluka (-3.9%) was the poorest performer on the ASX 200 bottom movers list, which also features uranium miners, coal producers and data centre plays DigiCo (-3.7%) and NEXTDC (-2.3%).

The stocks giving defensive portfolios new meaning

There was a time when loading up your portfolio with defensive capability meant banks, utilities and a load of bonds.

Well, today's big winners on the ASX 200 all feature defensive characteristics but not in the traditional sense (although to be pedantic, all receive funding from the rebadged and bristling US Department of War).

IT savvy DroneShield was the big winner today up almost 20%. 

Frigate maker Austal (+4.6%) was in in demand, as was a little known ASX-listed titanium miner IperionX which just received another $US25 million in funds from the US Department of War to keep digging at its tenement in West Tennessee.

Here's  DroneShield chief executive Oleg Vornik talking to Alicia Barry on The Business last week about why shares in his company have surged nearly 400 per cent this year.

Market snapshot
  • ASX 200: +0.9% to 8,863 points (live values below)
  • Australian dollar: +0.4% to 65.70 US cents
  • Asia: Nikkei -0.9%, Hang Seng +2.0%, Shanghai +1.8%
  • Wall Street (Friday): S&P500 +0.6%, Dow +0.7%, Nasdaq +0.4%
  • Europe (Friday): Dax +0.9%, FTSE +0.8%, Eurostoxx +0.8%
  • Spot gold: +1.4% to $US3,811/ounce
  • Brent crude: -0.5% to $US 69.81/barrel
  • Iron ore (Friday): -2.2% to $US103.60/tonne
  • Bitcoin: +0.9% at $US111,870

Prices current around 4:20pm AEST

Live updates on the major ASX indices:

Onwards and upwards — gold pushes through $US3,800/ounce

It seems like only last week I was blogging about spot gold pushing through $US3,700/ounce — perhaps because it was, around this time last Monday.

Well, a week is a long time in the gold market.

The spot price is up another 1.4% today driving the precious metal through the $3,800/ounce level to a rolling record high.

So, with few signs of investor fatigue, is it a case of ....

 ... we doubt it. Stay safe out there.

The monthly inflation indicator — be careful what you wish for

For a long time, macro wonks and market economists obsessed with the RBA, its machinations and interest rates had been banging on about the paucity of inflation data in Australia.

The argument went "monthly readings are common around the world, why not in 'god's own…'"

Finally in late 2022, the ABS capitulated and started a new monthly series — not exactly its flagship quarterly survey but still churning out inflation statistics at a world's best practice pace.

All good, except the RBA has a "yeah, nah" view of the dataset and now even those who wanted it are starting to have second thoughts about the CPI Indicator, particularly after the overwrought market reaction after last week's release.

The RBA OIS (Overnight Indexed Swap), a financial derivative used to hedge interest rate risk, pricing rose from 3.12% to 3.24% from before and after the print, which as HSBC's RBA watcher, and former RBA official, Paul Bloxham said "is quite a move".

"Last week's market reaction to the monthly CPI indicator seems to us to be a bit overdone and perhaps a bit topsy turvy," Mr Bloxham wrote in a note to clients.

But does one over-reaction undermine the whole series?

Mr Bloxham says at the moment the CPI indicator provides a pretty 'rough and ready' guide to the quarterly trimmed mean inflation, "so we have been very cautious about reading too much into it".

"Putting together a monthly CPI should be a benefit. And some may say: it should be easy?

"Just do the quarterly CPI, but monthly instead.

"Unfortunately, it is not that simple. Many of the surveys used to collect price data are not available monthly.

"So the monthly CPI indicator is an incomplete, partial indicator. In the first month of the quarter it has a lot of goods prices, and covers around 62% of the CPI basket; in the second month it includes more services and covers 73% of the basket; and, the final month has 71% of the basket — by the third month, of course, we also get the full quarterly measure.

"A problem then is that each month covers different things, so it is hard to compare month-to-month."

The ABS is rolling out a new, "you beaut" full monthly CPI set to go for October with the first data published in late November.

"With a full basket each month, a monthly trimmed mean will at least make more sense," Mr Bloxham said.

"The statistics bureau has already indicated that for the 12-18 months seasonal adjustment may be a problem as many of the underlying monthly series only have a short history."

Another veteran RBA watcher, AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver has an even more sceptical view.

"Why bother with the monthly CPI? The monthly CPI correlates very roughly with the quarterly when viewed on a graph but its value remain dubious," Dr Oliver said.

"The RBA has indicated that it will continue to emphasise the quarterly CPI for the foreseeable future even when the full monthly commences for October.

"So, all it seems to do is give economists and media more to talk about and more for traders to trade on but just adds to the volatility, noise and soap opera around the RBA and interest rates with no benefit to the wider community."

Having said that, this blog what like to point out that "noise and soap opera around the RBA and interest rates" is excellent grist for this particular mill and humbly suggests the ABS has a go at weekly, or even daily CPI readings.

More Chinese stimulus on the way, Yuan stronger as company profits rebound

There's been a bit action out of China today with news that the central bank there is taking more active measures to entice foreign investors to its bond market and promote global use of the Chinese currency.

After the yuan recorded its biggest weekly loss in two months amid a US dollar rally last week, Chinese authorities broadened foreign access to its bond repurchase market as part of efforts to encourage global investors to hold yuan assets.

In addition, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) launched a centre in Shanghai to promote global use of digital yuan, while officials also unveiled plans to boost offshore yuan business in Hong Kong.

Following weak retail and industrial production data pointing to the Chinese economy losing momentum in August, PBOC governor Pan Gongsheng pledged last week to introduce another round of stimulus to ensure ample liquidity, try to drive down funding costs and support economic recovery.

"Looking ahead, we will comprehensively use a variety of monetary policy tools based on macroeconomic conditions and changes in the situation," Mr Pan said.

The result is the tightly controlled yuan is now 0.2% stronger than Friday's close, also helped by the US dollar easing.

"The combination of looser monetary policies and more proactive fiscal policies will drive yuan appreciation," China Galaxy Securities told Reuters, while predicting interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter.

The US is also expected to cut rates further this year, meaning China's yield discount with the US may not widen further.

The Chinese economy had better news over the weekend with the release of data showing industrial profits returned to growth in August

Industrial profits rose 20.4% in August from a year earlier, reversing a 1.5% year-on-year decline in July, while profits grew 0.9% in the first eight months compared to a 1.7% decline in the January-July period, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed on Saturday.

Intense competition in autos, solar and other key industrial sectors where relentless price wars have been relied on to outsell rivals has taken a toll on business margins.

Electric vehicle maker BYD saw quarterly profit fall for the first time in three-and-a-half years.

However, a government crackdown on "involution", the destructive super competition amongst auto, solar panel and other manufacturers, eased deflation last month.

While factory gate prices are stabilising, the on-going problem remains anaemic domestic demand and a prolonged downturn in the property sector.

Optus distances itself from Singtel bonus

As our business correspondent David Taylor reported earlier, an employee of Optus owner Singtel has enjoyed a nice bonus, at the same time the company is engulfed in a deepening crisis.

Optus says a large bonus paid to an employee of Singtel is "totally unrelated" to the Australian telco.

The Singapore-based giant awarded more than $160,000 worth of shares to an employee of the group just a week after its Australian subsidiary experienced a network outage, which led to the failure of some emergency calls and was linked to three deaths.

Singtel announced the bonus to the Singaporean stock exchange late on Friday night, local time.

By Monday morning, Optus was investigating its second service outage in less than two weeksthis time affecting a mobile tower in Dapto in New South Wales.

You can read the story, including the full statement from Optus:

ASX gains on banks and healthcare

The ASX 200 is largely holding on to its early gains heading into the afternoon, 0.7% higher at 8,850 points (1:30pm AEST).

The financial sector of banks and insurers is doing the heavy lifting, while healthcare is enjoying a decent CSL inspired rally.

Energy stocks, particularly uranium miners and coal producers, are a drag along with the real estate sector.

Looking at the largest, most widely held stocks on the ASX top 20, CSL is leading the way (+3.1%) with investors ploughing back in after Friday's panicky sell-off in the wake of pharmaceutical tariff threats from the White House.

Banks — CBA (+1.8%) & Westpac (+1.6%) — are well bid, along with QBE (+1.5%).

The only stocks in the top 20 deeply in the red are the big miners, Fortsecue (-1.9%), Rio Tinto (-1.5%) and BHP (-1.4%), after the iron ore price in China slumped 2% on Friday.

Santos is down marginally despite a spike in the oil price.

Market snapshot
  • ASX 200: +0.7% to 8,850 points (live values below)
  • Australian dollar: +0.2% to 65.61 US cents
  • Asia: Nikkei -1.0%, Hang Seng +1.4%, Shanghai +0.6%
  • Wall Street (Friday): S&P500 +0.6%, Dow +0.7%, Nasdaq +0.4%
  • Europe (Friday): Dax +0.9%, FTSE +0.8%, Eurostoxx +0.8%
  • Spot gold: +1.0% to $US3,795/ounce
  • Brent crude: -0.5% to $US 69.78/barrel
  • Iron ore (Friday): -2.2% to $US103.60/tonne
  • Bitcoin: +0.7% at $US111,689

Prices current around 1:20pm AEST

Live updates on the major ASX indices: