The AUD/USD traded softer this week, as the USD remained broadly firm, according to ANZ.
News around US-China trade negotiations is the major driving factor for the AUD near-term.
China’s Q3 GDP showed a 0.5% year-to-date decline in fixed asset investment, which was its first decline outside the COVID era, as property market headwinds continue.
While industrial production expanded 6.5% y/y in September, retail sales slowed to 3% y/y, down from 3.4% in August, amid falling home prices.
Any signs of weaker growth in China’s economy will likely weigh on the AUD/USD.
The recent announcement of a US-Australia critical minerals framework, designed to deepen the supply of rare earths and reduce dependence on China, helped limit some of the AUD downside.
Domestically, Australia’s recent labour force report showed a surprise rise in the unemployment rate to 4.5% — the highest since November 2021.
Consumer confidence improved slightly in October but remains at relatively low levels, suggesting households are still cautious despite higher incomes and housing prices.
Attention now turns to next week’s Q3 CPI data, which will be crucial for the RBA’s rate outlook.
Despite the uptick in unemployment, ANZ says it continues to expect the RBA to keep rates unchanged in November.