That's it for another day on the blog, thanks for your company.
There were a lot of keystrokes to end up back where we started.
Looking ahead, Wall Street looks like making gains with S&P 500 futures up 0.5% and Nasdaq futures up 0.7%.
We'll be back bright and early with all the developments overnight.
Until next time, missing you already ...
The ASX 200 has enjoyed a solid late session rally to close flat at 8,634 points.
Having been down as much as 0.5%, the index managed to eke out the narrowest of gains of less than 2 points.
The broader All Ordinaries did better, gaining 0.1% over the day.
The energy and property sectors did much of the heavy lifting, while miners and healthcare were a drag.
Despite the oil price sliding across the day, energy stocks were broadly higher across the sector - oil and gas producers, refiners and retailers, uranium miners gained and even the coal producers crept over the advantage line by the close.
The miners were mixed with Rio Tinto and Fortescue up 0.6% and 1.1% respectively, while BHP was down 0.6% after the England High Court found it liable for the deadly Brazilian dam collapse a decade ago.
Drilling into the miners, rare earth plays were back in favour with Lynas, Iluka and Arafura all up almost 6%.
The banks had a mixed session with CBA down 1% and Westpac up 0.6%, while insurers were all stronger.
Property trusts generally had a solid day with Charter Hall leading the way on news that it had signed up the Bank of Queensland as long term tenant in its new Brisbane tower.
Top mover on the ASX 200 was DroneShield (+11.6%) which clawed back some losses after a short seller made some disparaging comments about the company last week.
Bottom movers on the ASX 200 included titanium miner Iperionx (-3%) after a short seller made some disparaging remarks about it today.
Regis Resources (-3.1%) was one of a number of gold miners that had a late session stumble as the spot price slid.
Prices current at around 4:15pm AEDT
Live updates on the major ASX indices:
The Kobeissi Letter X account just posted an interesting look at gold vs cryptocurrency, noting that since the record $US19 billion crypto liquidation on October 10 the two have gone in very different directions.
Cryptos shed $100 billion in value since Friday and more than $US1 trillion since the mass liquidation.
It's not something that is overly worrying equity markets with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures pointing to strong gains tonight.
What if rates have already been cut too far? It's not the question those with a mortgage would like to hear, and many would answer with just two words (take your pick).
But it is a valid question posed by HSBC's chief Australian economist (and former RBA employee) Paul Bloxham.
Mr Bloxham's argument is based on a number of upside data surprises recently.
"As we see it, weak productivity and a supply-constrained economy means that only a modest upswing in growth could be enough to deliver excessive inflation," Mr Bloxham said.
"What if the economy is already running too hot? What then?"
Mr Bloxham accepts his view is far from a consensus stance amongst RBA watchers as most market economists are still expecting a cut and futures trading point to a 50:50 outcome of another 25bp cut next year.
The HSBC house view is the next RBA move is more likely up than down, albeit not until 2027.
"We find it hard to argue that monetary policy is currently restrictive — that is, above the 'neutral rate' — given that growth, core inflation and the housing market are all in an upswing," Mr Bloxham said.
He also believes the RBA is gradually shifting its view.
"Until recently the RBA had been describing the policy setting as modestly restrictive. However, by our reading, the RBA's tone has shifted following the upside surprise to inflation."
Not cutting is one thing, a long pause another, but what would spark a rate hike?
Mr Bloxham says unemployment would have to start falling, something he says may happen mid-2026 when he expects above-trend growth to kick in.
Earlier on the blog (9:35am AEDT), we posted a fairly positive note from ANZ forecasting that rising steel prices and tightening port inventories would put a $US100/tonne floor under iron ore.
Since then, a few notes have dropped painting a less rosy view of things.
Both UBS and CBA were unimpressed by Friday's data out of China that showed industrial production was slowing and Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) — a proxy for construction spending and a key demand driver across several commodities — had fallen this year, the worst contraction since 2022.
"The rapid fall in China's FAI was a key lowlight in the activity data released on Friday," CBA's commodities analyst Vivek Dhar said
"Policy to reduce excess competition and overcapacity since the beginning of July has coincided with the more severe contractions in FAI.
"But FAI was weakening even prior to July, indicating that other more structural headwinds were at play."
UBS lead mining analyst Lachlan Shaw also said the October data was weaker than expected and signals risk to commodity demand and prices.
The UBS report noted iron ore port stocks were rising again at a time when steel production often slows and ahead of shipments commencing from the giant Simandou in Guinea.
"China property signals deteriorated further, with starts/sales -20%/-8% y/y, and the real estate climate index continued to decline," Mr Shaw wrote.
"Crude steel output in October was down — 12% y/y on the NBS (National Bureau of Statistics) measure although — Mysteel utilisation rates paint a less bearish picture.
"Iron ore port stocks are -8% y/y, which has provided support for prices in recent months.
"However, with port inventories now rising +4% m/m, Simandou shipments having commenced, and steel production in China's north likely to be managed through poor air quality phases over winter, this could soon lead to pressure on iron ore prices through end CY25 and early CY26."
Mr Shaw added the outlook for coal in China was not better.
"The modest decrease in domestic coal/coke production balanced against a larger drop in imports suggests 1) domestic demand is weak and, 2) anti-involution (the government's campaign against destructive price cutting) may be slowing.
"This could present meaningful downside for coal prices, particularly coking coal which is more exposed to any slowing of anti-involution in the coal sector."
In a third note, Morgan Stanley's commodities team forecast iron ore prices would average $US95/tonne across 2026, a 6% decline from current spot prices.
A bit has happened since we last checked on the ASX 200, with the banks now being sold off and momentum switching to the miners and energy sector — the net result is the index is down 0.3% at 1pm (AEDT).
Despite winners and losers being roughly evenly split, only the energy and the very small education sectors have made any ground.
The banks had opened positively but are now losing ground, although the big insurers are all in the money.
The miners, on the other hand, have steadily gained across the morning, although BHP is still down (-0.9%) after the weekend ruling from the English High Court found it was liable for damages from the deadly Brazilian dam collapse a decade ago.
Gold stocks have also gained on the back of a stronger spot price this morning, although the industry heavyweight, the Newmont CDI, is down 1.7%.
Energy plays such as oil and gas producers, refiners and retailers, and uranium miners are being bid up, although coal miners remain unloved.
The top mover on the ASX 200 is AI-powered defence stock DroneShield (+6.7%), which has recovered some ground after heavy selling last week, while rare earth players such as Lynas (+5.0%) and Iluka (+4.5%) are also in demand.
The ASX 200 bottom movers are headed by titanium miner Iperionx (-7.3%), with investors spooked by a negative note from a short-selling fund.
SQM Research founder Louis Christopher says the research house will defend legal action from corporate watchdog ASIC.
On LinkedIn Mr Christopher said, "SQM Research has been made aware that the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has commenced civil proceedings in the Federal Court of Australia in relation to three historical research reports published by SQM between 2021 and 2022 concerning the Shield Master Fund" and that "SQM intends to respectfully defend the proceedings".
"For more than 17 years, SQM Research has built its reputation on providing objective, high-quality and transparent investment research to financial advisers, platforms and institutional clients across Australia," he said.
"We have always operated with the highest standards of integrity and in full compliance with all applicable laws and regulatory guidance.
"Our methodologies are robust, continually reviewed and enhanced, and our ratings have consistently been recognised for their objectivity and value to the market. Our track record before this terrible event has been solid.
"SQM takes its regulatory obligations extremely seriously and has cooperated fully with ASIC throughout its investigation.
"As the matter is now before the court, SQM will not be making any further public comment at this time as we need to save it for the hearing."
"We remain fully focused on continuing to deliver high-quality, objective research to our clients and the broader financial services community and so it is very much business as usual."
I spoke on ABC's The Business with Alicia Barry about ASIC allegations against SQM and others including licensee Interprac here:
Prices current at around 12:20pm AEDT
Live updates on the major ASX indices:
A bit of broker analysis has started to flow in regarding the English High Court's ruling that BHP was liable for a deadly dam collapse in Brazil a decade ago.
In the UK class action, the High Court rejected BHP's defence that Brazilian corporate law shields the parent company; instead, it ruled BHP is a "polluter" under Brazilian environmental/civil law.
In a research note this morning, RBC Capital's Kaan Peke argues BHP will have to increase provisions, but the overall costs are contained.
"We expect a neutral reaction from this announcement," Mr Peke said.
"The headline 'BHP liable' will likely dominate media coverage, but fundamental impact should be contained.
"BHP has increased its provisions by $700m, however, the potential cashflow impact is future dated (~2030), and already significantly provisioned (i.e. contained) as per the October 2024 US$32bn Brazil Agreement."
The immediate impact of the weekend ruling has not been overly well-received.
At midday (AEDT), BHP shares were down 1.5%, while its big iron ore mining peers Rio Tinto and Fortescue were up 0.6% and 0.1% respectively.
Here's Europe bureau chief Mazoe Ford's coverage of the court decision: