That's it for today. Thanks for joining us. We'll be back early tomorrow morning.
The ABS will release its September quarter GDP figures at 11:30am AEDT. We'll cover that in the blog, online, and on TV.
Until then, take care of yourselves.
That's it for today. Thanks for joining us. We'll be back early tomorrow morning.
The ABS will release its September quarter GDP figures at 11:30am AEDT. We'll cover that in the blog, online, and on TV.
Until then, take care of yourselves.
Among the best performers on the ASX200 today were Yancoal Australia (up 18 cents, +3.35%, to $5.55), AUB Group (up 92 cents, +3%, to $31.55), and Computershare (up 92 cents, +2.65%, to $35.64).
Among the worst performers were Zip Co (down 35 cents, -10.61%, to $2.95), Guzman Y Gomez (down $1.01, -4.35%, to $22.22), and DroneShield (down 8.5 cents, -4.33%, to $1.88).
With trading closed on the ASX, the S&P/ASX200 has gained 14.5 points (+0.17%), to close on 8,579 points.
Prices current at around 4:30pm AEDT
Live updates on the major ASX indices:
Market Forces released a report today that's worth reading.
It has identified a global list of 200 companies with the biggest coal, oil and gas expansion plans. It calls the group of companies the Fossil Fuel Expansion Index, or the FFX 200.
"Every company in this index is actively undermining the climate goals of the Paris Agreement and impeding the clean energy transition by expanding fossil fuels," it says.
Its analysis of the default or largest investment options of Australia's 30 largest super funds reveals these options collectively had more than AU$33 billion invested in FFX 200 companies as at 30 June 2025.
It says Australia’s top 30 super funds have more than three times invested in FFX 200 companies than they do in clean energy.
Yet our findings also reveal investments in the Bloomberg Goldman Sachs Global Clean Energy Index, achieved double (104%) the returns of the FFX 200 over seven years.
It says only one out of the largest 30 Australian super funds has no investments in FFX 200 companies: Australian Ethical.
This fund has a comprehensive exclusion on companies with fossil fuel expansion plans, ruling out investments in the FFX 200. Australian Ethical has only recently become one of the largest 30 super funds, demonstrating rising consumer demand for fossil fuel-free financial products.
Science & Technology Australia (STA) says the National AI Plan released today by the Australian government provides some certainty for Australia's economy, and direction for the research and innovation sector that is critically needed, but Australia must now make substantial investment in infrastructure and the future workforce.
STA represents more than 235,000 scientists and technologists.
It says the AI Stanford Index shows from 2013-24, the United States has led investment into AI with more than $470 billion, China is next with $119 billion, the UK at $28 billion and Australia at $4 billion.
"We welcome the Government’s existing investments in AI outlined in the Plan – but these are a drop in the ocean compared to other countries’ investments in sovereign AI capabilities," STA CEO Ryan Winn said.
"The Plan provides the direction, now Australia must invest in sovereign AI capability to ensure systems are purpose-built, safe, and secure.
"This includes investment in the domestic AI workforce, sovereign data centres – powered through renewable energy – strong information security protocols and developing models that account for Australia's unique characteristics and don't introduce bias from offshore contexts.”
He says the ‘compute mapping’ outlined in the Plan will be critical to enable Australian research’s high-performance computing (HPC) needs. This is essential for both AI development and adoption.
“High performance computing underpins many different aspects of Australia’s world-leading research, from drug discoveries to modelling complex social issues and exploring the cosmos.”
Another significant challenge is to nurture the specialist workforce needed to build and maintain our AI capability. A key component of a strong future AI workforce is mathematics.
“Infrastructure investment will be wasted if the future workforce is not available to drive innovation, and this is a major concern for Australia," he says.
Tony Sycamore from IG has circulated a little note looking at the year on the ASX200, and the year ahead.
He says with just four weeks left before year-end, the ASX200 is trading close to 8,600, reflecting a 5.39 per cent increase for the calendar year to date (CYTD) and positioning it for a third consecutive year of gains.
He says the ASX200 Accumulated Index, which accounts for all cash dividends reinvested on the ex-dividend date, stands at 115,933 — an increase of 8.73 per cent CYTD. This marks the Accumulated Index's sixth year of positive returns out of the last seven.
But with that positive news, he says the ASX200 has lagged many of its global peers.
"This underperformance can be attributed to the ASX200’s narrow weighting in technology stocks and the impact of resurgent inflation, which has curtailed the RBA's rate-cutting cycle, leaving monetary policy settings in a restrictive stance.
"Additionally, tariffs and trade wars have impacted China —Australia’s largest trading partner and buyer of its commodities— contributing to a subdued nominal GDP growth rate of 4 per cent amid lingering deflation.
"Lastly, the local index is trading at a lofty premium compared to its historical valuations, with the ASX200's 12-month forward P/E ratio now at 18.1x, above the long-term average of 14.8x," he says.
What's his expectation for 2026?
He says the ASX200 is expected to reach the 9,300/9,500 target by the end of 2026.
Why? Based on some of these fundamentals:
GDP: The RBA warns that GDP growth in Australia’s major trading partners is expected to slow, which will lead to Australian GDP stabilising around 2 per cent YoY in 2026.
Inflation: The RBA expects trimmed mean inflation to be 3.2 per cent during the first half of 2026, before easing to finish the year lower at 2.7 per cent.
Labour Market: The RBA expects the unemployment rate to edge higher to 4.4 per cent, where it is forecast to remain throughout 2026 and all of 2027.
Housing: The housing market has been strong this year driven by RBA rate cuts, strong migration, and favourable government policies. However, with the RBA expected to remain “on hold” during the first half of 2026, the impact of this year’s rate cuts will start to fade.
RBA rates: Expected to remain on hold for the first half of 2026.
Tomorrow the ABS will release September quarter GDP data.
A few economics teams have released their final forecasts for what they think the number will be:
As the federal and state governments embark on a quest to build 1.2 million new homes before 2030 rolls around, the Australian Bureau of Statistics has provided the latest data on building approvals.
The news isn't fantastic, with a 6.4% fall in dwelling approvals to 15,832 during the month of October, although this came after a big surge in September.
"The October fall in dwellings was driven by a 13.1% drop in approvals for private dwellings excluding houses. This result follows a 25.0% rise in this series in September," notes Daniel Rossi, ABS head of construction statistics.
"Private sector houses also fell 2.1%, to 9,251 dwellings, after a 3.2% rise in September."
Housing Industry Association senior economist, and regular reader of this blog, Maurice Tapang says it isn't a bad result overall.
"Despite the monthly decline in approvals, this brought the volume of new housing approvals in the 12 months to October 2025 to 192,100, which remains 12.6% higher compared to the previous year," he notes.
"Interest rate cuts have provided the confidence boost for home buying activity. Households are increasingly turning to new home building as an alternative.
"This comes as established home prices continue to rise, as demand outpaces the supply of homes available for purchase."
Oxford Economics Australia analyst Maree Kilroy says home building looks set to continue this expansion next year.
"Strong enquiry leads for new dwellings point to a rosy near-term outlook for residential construction. With growth accelerating next year, total dwelling starts are forecast to reach 210,100 (+11%) in FY2027," she notes.
"Uncertainty has increased regarding the timing and likelihood of any further interest rate cuts. Nonetheless, there is considerable pent-up housing demand ready to fuel the upturn.
"The accumulation of rezoning, planning concessions, institutional investment incentives, and social housing renewal will play a defining role."
Still, neither 192,100 nor 210,100 match the 240,000 new homes a year required to meet the government's target.
As what we could see of Treasury's incoming government brief hinted, there's next to no chance of Australia hitting that 1.2 million new home goal before 2030 arrives.
The federal government released its National AI Plan this morning.
It is calling the plan a "comprehensive roadmap" to build an AI-enabled economy that "harnesses the full potential of artificial intelligence for the benefit of all Australians."
The plan shows that the government has accepted business demands to pause "mandatory guardrails" over AI.
As the ABC's Jake Evans reported:
The long-awaited plan, which the government began consulting on in 2023, was originally intended to include hard rules to govern artificial intelligence, amid deep distrust in the community over the rapidly spreading technology.
In September last year, former industry minister Ed Husic flagged 10 "mandatory guardrails" under development, which would include requirements for high-risk AI developers to create risk-management plans, test systems before and after deployment, establish complaints mechanisms, share data after adverse incidents, and open records to assessment by third parties.
Those guardrails were intended to operate under a standalone AI act that could be used to categorise technologies based on risk, with strict rules over high-risk AI and less regulation to encourage lower-risk tools.
But the government has stepped back from that path, committing in the National AI Plan to instead using "strong existing, largely technology-neutral legal frameworks" and "regulators' existing expertise" to manage artificial intelligence in the short term.
And a few responses are coming through from industry.
Australian Industry Group says it looks like a "pragmatic and impactful" national AI plan that should help to drive productivity, and which provides "measured guardrails" to avoid the pitfalls of its implementation.
Innes Willox, chief executive of AI Group, said:
"The focus on infrastructure is sensible and essential. As data centre growth skyrockets around the world, we need to ensure that access to energy and water is delivered in a measured way, without compromising the needs of other energy and water users, while ensuring that Australia does not miss out on the infrastructure that is essential in a digitalised economy.
"We are pleased the Government shares our view that Australia's existing technology-neutral legal frameworks are robust enough to protect people and businesses from perceived dangers of AI. The AI Safety Institute provides a dynamic safety net to ensure that regulators are informed as the technology shifts."
But Daniel Roberts, co-founder and co-CEO of IREN (Australia-based company that started in bitcoin mining but is transitioning to AI data storage) says the government's plan is a welcome first step but it "falls well short of what's required" to unlock Australia’s full potential in next-generation digital infrastructure.
"The plan recognises the opportunity, but it does not tackle the actual bottlenecks. i.e. slow grid-connection approvals, complex permitting processes, unclear regulatory pathways and an investment environment weighed down by red tape," he told the ABC.
"Australia has been here before. During the resources boom, much of the value-add happened offshore. We risk repeating that mistake with the AI and the data-centre infrastructure boom. Australia has abundant renewable energy, land, and sovereign stability. Clearly the foundations for global leadership in AI compute, but only if we remove barriers rather than create them.
"Other markets, like Texas, understand they are competing globally and focus on clearing obstacles to business. In contrast, Australian governments and regulators often behave as though they operate a monopoly. The reality is that investment can, will and already has gone elsewhere when we fail to provide a clear, fast and practical pathway for those building critical data centre infrastructure.
"Australia once again has a generational opportunity to turn natural advantages into long-term national prosperity. We can keep kicking own goals through bureaucracy and delay, or we can streamline approvals and enable Australia to capture the value of the AI era here at home."