That's it for another day on the blog, thanks for your company.
Looking ahead, S&P 500 futures are pointing to a small gain on Wall Street overnight.
Looking even further ahead, it will be a big day on the blog tomorrow with the RBA rates decision coming out at 2:30pm AEDT.
While it is highly likely rates will be kept on hold at 3.6%, there will be plenty to unpack in the commentary that follows.
Missing you already, until next time ...
The ASX 200 clawed back some earlier losses to close just 0.1% lower at 8,624 points.
Much of the selling was centred on the broad materials and industrials sectors, with technology, financials and property pulling the other way
All the big miners were sold off after iron ore prices fell again in China on Friday.
Rio Tinto and BHP shed 0.9% and 0.8% respectively.
Lithium miners were the bright spot among the rock kickers after UBS upgraded price targets across the sector.
Liontown gained 14.8% while PLS (formerly Pilbara Metals) picked up 6%
The banks were mixed; CBA (+0.8%) and Westpac (+0.4) up, ANZ (-0.7%) and NAB (-0.6%.) down
The top movers on the ASX 200 were the lithium miners Liontown and PLS, while National Storage REIT gained 2.2% after accepting a $4 billion takeover offer from a consortium led by Canadian giant Brookfield.
The ASX bottom movers list is headed by uranium miner Boss Energy (-4.5%), which will lose its spot in the ASX 200 next month along with HMC Capital (-2.8%), which will also be demoted.
Life 360 dropped 3.8% after a director sold a swag of shares.
Thanks Thorolf, the only read we have on the impact of AU/CN trade at the moment are some broad aggregate numbers around Australia's key commodity exports.
Lower commodity prices in November helped boost purchases of energy and iron ore.
ANZ's Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes says stockpiling of iron ore offset the seasonal decline in steel production and construction activity.
Chinese iron imports are up around 9% on a year ago.
"Mills are actively restocking, even as the "anti-involution" campaign created headwinds," Mr Hynes said.
"With domestic steel output sharply lower and iron ore port inventories recovering, imports are set to decelerate."
Steel product exports grew strongly, rising 8% y/y to 9.98mt.
Coal imports, however, fell sharply down 20% to 44 million tonnes.
"Lower prices and a drive for energy security are incentivising higher coal imports despite elevated inventories," Mr Hynes said.
"LNG imports saw their highest monthly volume this year at 11.95mt, reflecting increased stockpiling for heating demand."
Refined copper imports also fell sharply, down 19% over the year.
"Trade flows are being diverted to the US due to fears of impending import tariffs," Mr Hynes said.
Prices current around 4:15pm AEDT
Live updates on the major ASX indices:
China's exports topped forecasts in November, driven by a surge in shipments to non-US markets as manufacturers deepen trade ties with the rest of the world in light of President Donald Trump's prohibitively high tariffs.
Outbound shipments from the world's second-biggest economy grew 5.9% year-on-year, customs data showed on Monday, reversing from a 1.1% contraction a month prior, and beating a 3.8% forecast in a Reuters poll.
Imports were up 1.9%, compared to a 1.0% uptick in October. Economists had expected a 3.0% increase.
"There's no improvement in China's direct exports to the US. Exports to the European Union, Africa and Latin America outperformed instead," said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Chinese shipments to the US dropped 29% in November year-on-year, the data shows, even though the month began with news that the United States and China had agreed to scale back some of their tariffs and a raft of other measures after Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping met in South Korea on October 30.
Economists estimate that diminished access to the US market has reduced China's export growth by roughly 2 percentage points, equivalent to around 0.3% of GDP.
October's unexpected downturn, following an 8.3% surge the month prior, signalled that Chinese exporters' tactic of front-loading US-bound shipments to beat Trump's tariffs had run its course.
Although Chinese factory owners reported an improvement in new export orders in November, they were still in contraction, underscoring continued uncertainty for manufacturers as they struggle to replace demand in the absence of US buyers.
An official survey tracking broader factory activity showed that the sector contracted for an eighth consecutive month.
China's trade surplus stood at $111.68 billion in November, from $90.07 billion recorded the previous month, and beating a forecast of $100.2 billion.
Hi Stan, no, we would never call you old fashioned.
You, after all, are a reader of the ABC markets blog, so you're clearly very sharp and well ahead of the game in our view.
Yes of course, we should have mentioned that Arnott's was taken over by the giant US-owned private equity firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts; KKR to its friends, something else to its enemies.
So, the NRFC is subsidising a US company — which may mean the deal may not drag us into another front in the US trade war (although you can never be certain about such things).
Here's a background piece about the Arnott's takeover written by some old hack aeons ago.
Woo hoo, it was looking like a data-lite Monday but up stepped the CBA with its inaugural Wage and Labour Insights Report.
The CBA has looked at 400,000 of its account holders (de-identified of course) to create proxies for the ABS Wage Price Index, as well as trend employment growth, to get its analysis "ahead of curve" — well, that's the marketing pitch at least.
So, what does this modern macro marvel tell us on its maiden voyage?
On the wages front, wage growth has ticked up by 3.2% over the year, while 26,000 jobs were created in November. (The official jobs number will be released by the ABS on Thursday, but hey, if you can't wait...).
"While wages growth has still moderated over the past year, the slight tick up in November is worth watching, especially when combined with recent higher than expected inflation prints and Q3 25 GDP data showing the Australian economy has reached its speed limit," CBA head of Australian economics Belinda Allen said.
"If wages continue to strengthen, the risk of interest rate hikes in 2026 will rise."
Ms Allen says the slight (expected) tick in job creation means the labour market "is broadly in balance".
"Taken together, the data reaffirms our view that the RBA will be on hold at 3.6% for an extended period.
"The labour market remains on a solid footing and broadly in balance.
"But the tick up measured wage growth in the CBA Wage Insight series will be one to watch. If this continues to strengthen, it is a sign of a tightening labour market and creates upward pressure on inflation."
Thanks Brad, being dropped from the ASX200 is a bit like getting demoted from the thirds to the fourths (given the ASX top 20 is akin to the firsts) — a bit upsetting, but you generally keep playing ... the All Ordinaries will always give you a game, unless you're insolvent and can't pay your subs.
The big hit is generally to a company's share price, given ETFs and managed funds tracking the ASX200 (or any index for that matter) are required to adjust their holdings, selling shares in those getting dropped and buying shares in those being promoted.
However, being dropped doesn't necessarily mean you're a dud.
Take Nathan Lyon for instance — "filthy" he may have been for his exclusion from the ACB11, but his fundamentals are still solid and there is still value there.
So, a good company kicked downstairs seeing its share price slip may mean there's better value there playing in a lower grade. (As always, that's not investment advice, more like riffing on a metaphor).
While the US government is funnelling more than $80 billion to its advanced chip makers, Australia has just announced a somewhat more modest aid package to its biscuit makers.
The National Reconstruction Fund Corporation has proudly announced a $45 million investment package to The Arnott's Group to take Tim Tams to the world.
The assistance to Arnott's comes in the form of a debt package to help refinance $1.75 billion in existing debt that matures in 2026.
Hopefully, the $45 million handout won't spark a flurry of punitive biscuit tariffs from the White House in defence of US champions like Oreos or the Snickerdoodle Cookie.
"The refinancing helps to secure the future of a market-leading food company that dates back to 1865 and currently employs over 2,500 Australian workers across five facilities," the NRFC said.
NRFC CEO David Gall made it clear the deal would be pivotal in boosting the export potential of Tim Tams.
Indeed, it seems on Mr Gall's evidence at least, that earlier efforts to get Tim Tams offshore resemble a small-scale smuggling operation rather than a well-executed export drive.
"So many of us have taken a pack of Tim Tam biscuits with us when we set out on travels across the globe," Mr Gall said.
"Taking such an iconic brand to international markets is something that is good for Australia and which the NRFC is excited to play a part in.
"For this great company to thrive into the future it needs to be positioning itself as a leader in advanced manufacturing in Australia and adapting its production lines to be future ready.
"The NRFC is pleased to be part of the refinancing of Arnott's debt," Mr Gall said.
It's worth pointing out there was no mention of Iced VoVos in the NRFC release, which from the blog's perspective is disappointing.
It may seem like just crumbs off the table compared to the $US52 billion ($80 billion) cut US chip makers received in the Joe Biden's 2022 $US280 billion CHIPS and Science Act (now considerably bolstered by the Trump Administration's championing of chips), but where was Nvidia 10 years ago?
Anyway, have you ever tried to eat a GB200 NVL72 chip? They're disgusting and expensive. And dunking them in a coffee doesn't make them any better.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the Cabinet has decided not to extend federal energy rebates beyond the end of this year.
The federal government had been tossing up whether to continue the rebates given the high cost of energy bills.
"There have been three rounds of electricity bill rebates, and there won't be a fourth. The Commonwealth has spent almost $7 billion on these three rounds of energy bill rebates," Chalmers says.
"These electricity bill rebates are important part of the budget, but not a permanent feature of the budget."
The treasurer has pointed to the government's cost-of-living measures as a reason behind the decision to end the rebates.
He says it wasn't an easy decision to make but was the right call.
The timing of state and federal electricity rebates have been having an impact on the energy prices included in official inflation figures.
Political reporter Joshua Boscaini has full coverage over on the federal politics live blog, open in a new tab: