International bank HSBC is of the view that the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike interest rates on Tuesday.
And it may not stop there.
Here are some comments fresh from chief economist Paul Bloxham's desk:
"The RBA had hoped that inflation was on track towards the mid-point of its 2-3% target band," he says.
"For much of 2025, the inflation prints appeared to support that view, and with that, the RBA cut its cash rate by 75bp (0.75%) that year.
"However, the easing phase ended abruptly with a sharp upside surprise in the 3Q25 CPI print, published in late October."
This "sharp upside surprise" in inflation has not abated, Bloxham says, because productivity growth is too weak.
"A weak supply-side means it has taken only a modest upswing in growth for the economy to be operating beyond its sustainable capacity," he says.
"This can be seen in above-average surveyed capacity utilisation, an unemployment rate below the RBA's estimates of "full employment" and, now, in a persistent excessive rise in inflation.
"Tighter fiscal policy could be used to take some pressure off the economy.
"However, the recent mid-year fiscal update showed that fiscal policy has loosened, with public spending expanding by much more than expected (by around 1.7% of GDP over the forward estimates).
"Of note, this is likely to have surprised the RBA, as it typically takes the fiscal numbers as stated in the budget."
All of this means, Bloxham adds, that the RBA will have little choice but to slow the economy down with an interest rate hike or two.
"For the RBA, we expect a 25bp hike in February, and for it to be a painful hike, given that it reverses course, and that the story is of a supply-constrained economy, not strong demand," he says.
"As always, all that monetary policy can do is slow down demand, not fix supply (or lift productivity)."